1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 SV Sandhausen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours 1. FC Heidenheim (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as 1. FC Heidenheim face SV Sandhausen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees SV Sandhausen travel to Voith-Arena to take on 1. FC Heidenheim. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 May 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Heidenheim stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Voith-Arena this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Voith-Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SV Sandhausen — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, SV Sandhausen have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
1. FC Heidenheim carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for 1. FC Heidenheim, 0 for SV Sandhausen and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2022, ended 4–3 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Heidenheim in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
SV Sandhausen in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 50% versus SV Sandhausen 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 54% | SV Sandhausen 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 2.12 xG and SV Sandhausen 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.223 / defence 0.752 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.901 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.352. 1. FC Heidenheim's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 1. FC Heidenheim games / 66 SV Sandhausen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 65% | Draw 20% | SV Sandhausen 15%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | SV Sandhausen 6.67. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Heidenheim (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Heidenheim 30% | SV Sandhausen 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 65% | Draw 20% | SV Sandhausen 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 53% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 2.12 / SV Sandhausen 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.223 / def 0.752 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.901 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
0.92
SV Sandhausen xG
53%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen?
1. FC Heidenheim 1 - 0 SV Sandhausen.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 65% chance of winning, SV Sandhausen a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Sandhausen will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Sandhausen?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 2W | Draws 1 | SV Sandhausen 0W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Sandhausen in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. SV Sandhausen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating (1.22) and SV Sandhausen's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SV Sandhausen's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
65%
1.54
20%
5.06
15%
6.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.04
0.92
SV Sandhausen xG
1.54
65%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
6.58
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
12%
8.35
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
2%
54.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Sandhausen expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 0.92 for SV Sandhausen, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, 1. FC Heidenheim have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 32W 17D 17L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
SV Sandhausen's form line: 17W 18D 31L from 66 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L.
Put side by side, 1. FC Heidenheim are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SV Sandhausen.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 2.15 PPG from 33 outings (21W 8D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SV Sandhausen have gone 9W 9D 15L from 33 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; SV Sandhausen are on 1.17 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Sandhausen in 64%.
Last 66 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
SV Sandhausen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Sandhausen in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 32W 17D 17L in their last 66 games (1.71 PPG), while SV Sandhausen have gone 17W 18D 31L in their last 66 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or SV Sandhausen away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.15 PPG; SV Sandhausen away: 1.09 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or SV Sandhausen been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, SV Sandhausen in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Sandhausen runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
1. FC Heidenheim have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting SV Sandhausen specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
0
SV Sandhausen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Sandhausen?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 3, SV Sandhausen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Sandhausen last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2023, when 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 SV Sandhausen.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Sandhausen?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
SV Sandhausen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 58%, SV Sandhausen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 54% (SV Sandhausen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / SV Sandhausen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play SV Sandhausen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 67% of SV Sandhausen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 54% of SV Sandhausen's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Sandhausen tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, SV Sandhausen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Heidenheim edge out SV Sandhausen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat SV Sandhausen 1-0 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 2.12 xG and SV Sandhausen 0.92 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Heidenheim fell 1.1 short of their projected output. SV Sandhausen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.22 / defence 0.75 against SV Sandhausen attack 0.90 / defence 1.10, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 65% | Draw 20% | SV Sandhausen 15%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 54%, SV Sandhausen 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. SV Sandhausen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.