SV Sandhausen 2-1 Dynamo Dresden – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SV Sandhausen at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Sandhausen vs Dynamo Dresden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald plays host to SV Sandhausen versus Dynamo Dresden in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 10 April 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
SV Sandhausen's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, SV Sandhausen have posted 2W 3D 5L at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dynamo Dresden have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 6D 4L. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Dynamo Dresden have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. SV Sandhausen's 1.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Dynamo Dresden's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for SV Sandhausen, 0 for Dynamo Dresden and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with SV Sandhausen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
SV Sandhausen — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Dynamo Dresden — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Sandhausen 61% versus Dynamo Dresden 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Sandhausen 46% | Dynamo Dresden 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Sandhausen 1.11 xG and Dynamo Dresden 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Sandhausen attack 0.818 / defence 1.160 | Dynamo Dresden attack 0.577 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.389. Data: 28 SV Sandhausen games / 28 Dynamo Dresden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 37% | Draw 36% | Dynamo Dresden 27%. Fair-value odds: SV Sandhausen 2.70 | Draw 2.78 | Dynamo Dresden 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Sandhausen are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Sandhausen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: SV Sandhausen 70% | Dynamo Dresden 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Sandhausen vs Dynamo Dresden | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 37% | Draw 36% | Dynamo Dresden 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG SV Sandhausen 1.11 / Dynamo Dresden 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: SV Sandhausen attack 0.818 / def 1.160 | Dynamo Dresden attack 0.577 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: SV Sandhausen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
SV Sandhausen xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Dynamo Dresden xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Sandhausen vs Dynamo Dresden kick off?
SV Sandhausen vs Dynamo Dresden kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What was the final score in SV Sandhausen vs Dynamo Dresden?
SV Sandhausen 2 - 1 Dynamo Dresden.
Where is SV Sandhausen vs Dynamo Dresden being played?
The match is being played at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What competition is SV Sandhausen vs Dynamo Dresden part of?
SV Sandhausen vs Dynamo Dresden is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Sandhausen vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our statistical model gives SV Sandhausen a 37% chance of winning, Dynamo Dresden a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making SV Sandhausen the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Sandhausen vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both SV Sandhausen and Dynamo Dresden will score (BTTS).
Will SV Sandhausen vs Dynamo Dresden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and Dynamo Dresden?
Record (1 meetings): SV Sandhausen 1W | Draws 0 | Dynamo Dresden 0W.
What form are SV Sandhausen and Dynamo Dresden in?
SV Sandhausen (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Dynamo Dresden (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SV Sandhausen's attack rating (0.82) and Dynamo Dresden's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dynamo Dresden's attack (0.58x) against SV Sandhausen's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Sandhausen Win
37%
2.71
36%
2.81
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
SV Sandhausen xG
Total xG
2.04
0.93
Dynamo Dresden xG
2.71
37%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
9%
11.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 12.1 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Sandhausen vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are SV Sandhausen and Dynamo Dresden expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for SV Sandhausen and 0.93 for Dynamo Dresden, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Sandhausen vs Dynamo Dresden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, SV Sandhausen have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 7W 10D 11L record — D-W-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Dynamo Dresden's form line: 7W 7D 14L from 28 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for SV Sandhausen against 1.00 for Dynamo Dresden. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SV Sandhausen have posted 0.77 PPG from 13 outings (2W 4D 7L).
On the road, Dynamo Dresden have gone 2W 3D 8L from 13 away games — 0.69 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
SV Sandhausen are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Dresden are on 0.96 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Sandhausen have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Sandhausen
Current Season
Dynamo Dresden
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Sandhausen and Dynamo Dresden in coming into this match?
SV Sandhausen have gone 7W 10D 11L in their last 28 games (1.11 PPG), while Dynamo Dresden have gone 7W 7D 14L in their last 28 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Sandhausen at home or Dynamo Dresden away?
SV Sandhausen's home record (0.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Sandhausen at home: 0.77 PPG; Dynamo Dresden away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
SV Sandhausen
0
Draws
0
Dynamo Dresden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and Dynamo Dresden?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Sandhausen have won 2, Dynamo Dresden have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Sandhausen and Dynamo Dresden last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2022, when SV Sandhausen 2-1 Dynamo Dresden.
Who has won more matches between SV Sandhausen and Dynamo Dresden?
SV Sandhausen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Sandhausen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Dynamo Dresden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Sandhausen 54%, Dynamo Dresden 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (SV Sandhausen) and 62% (Dynamo Dresden).
On the defensive side: SV Sandhausen have failed to score in 38% of games; Dynamo Dresden in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Sandhausen home games / Dynamo Dresden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Sandhausen play Dynamo Dresden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of SV Sandhausen's recent matches and 46% of Dynamo Dresden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Sandhausen vs Dynamo Dresden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of SV Sandhausen's recent games and 62% of Dynamo Dresden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Sandhausen and Dynamo Dresden tend to score early?
SV Sandhausen have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Dynamo Dresden in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SV Sandhausen edge out Dynamo Dresden 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Sandhausen beat Dynamo Dresden 2-1 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, Regular Season - 29, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Sandhausen 1.11 xG and Dynamo Dresden 0.93 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. SV Sandhausen beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Sandhausen attack 0.82 / defence 1.16 against Dynamo Dresden attack 0.58 / defence 1.17, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Sandhausen 37% | Draw 36% | Dynamo Dresden 27%, with SV Sandhausen to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Sandhausen 46%, Dynamo Dresden 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Sandhausen 1.11 PPG, Dynamo Dresden 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Sandhausen win broke the near-deadlock. SV Sandhausen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.