SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-1 FC Ingolstadt 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Ingolstadt 04 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees FC Ingolstadt 04 travel to Jahnstadion Regensburg to take on SSV Jahn Regensburg. The game is scheduled for Friday 8 April 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Jahnstadion Regensburg this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Ingolstadt 04 — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, FC Ingolstadt 04 have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (SSV Jahn Regensburg) versus 0.80 (FC Ingolstadt 04). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 0 for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 3–0 with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC Ingolstadt 04 in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 57% versus FC Ingolstadt 04 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 61% | FC Ingolstadt 04 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.46 xG and FC Ingolstadt 04 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.971 / defence 1.146 | FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.733 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.416. FC Ingolstadt 04 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing SSV Jahn Regensburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 28 FC Ingolstadt 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 41% | Draw 30% | FC Ingolstadt 04 29%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | FC Ingolstadt 04 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SSV Jahn Regensburg as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SSV Jahn Regensburg 70% | FC Ingolstadt 04 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Ingolstadt 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Friday 8 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 41% | Draw 30% | FC Ingolstadt 04 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.46 / FC Ingolstadt 04 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.971 / def 1.146 | FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.733 / def 1.311 | league avg home 1.146 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.19
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Ingolstadt 04 kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Ingolstadt 04 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 8 April 2022 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 1 - 1 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Ingolstadt 04 being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Ingolstadt 04 part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Ingolstadt 04 is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 41% chance of winning, FC Ingolstadt 04 a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Ingolstadt 04 will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Ingolstadt 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Ingolstadt 04?
Record (1 meetings): SSV Jahn Regensburg 1W | Draws 0 | FC Ingolstadt 04 0W.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Ingolstadt 04 in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack rating (0.97) and FC Ingolstadt 04's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Ingolstadt 04's attack versus SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
41%
2.43
30%
3.31
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.65
1.19
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
13%
7.99
7%
15.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Ingolstadt 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.19 for FC Ingolstadt 04, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, SSV Jahn Regensburg have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 10W 7D 11L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
FC Ingolstadt 04's form line: 4W 6D 18L from 28 games, 0.64 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, SSV Jahn Regensburg are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Ingolstadt 04.
Venue Form
On home soil, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 1.50 PPG from 14 outings (6W 3D 5L).
On the road, FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 2W 2D 10L from 14 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SSV Jahn Regensburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; FC Ingolstadt 04 are on 0.89 scored and 1.93 conceded.
Last 28 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Current Season
FC Ingolstadt 04
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Ingolstadt 04 in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 10W 7D 11L in their last 28 games (1.32 PPG), while FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 4W 6D 18L in their last 28 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or FC Ingolstadt 04 away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.50 PPG; FC Ingolstadt 04 away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
1
Draws
0
FC Ingolstadt 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Ingolstadt 04?
From 2 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Ingolstadt 04 last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2022, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-1 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Ingolstadt 04?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
FC Ingolstadt 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Jahn Regensburg 71%, FC Ingolstadt 04 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 64% for FC Ingolstadt 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Ingolstadt 04 in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / FC Ingolstadt 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play FC Ingolstadt 04?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's games and 43% of FC Ingolstadt 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Ingolstadt 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 64% of FC Ingolstadt 04's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Ingolstadt 04 tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FC Ingolstadt 04 in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Ingolstadt 04 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Jahn Regensburg and FC Ingolstadt 04 finished level at 1-1 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 29, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.46 xG and FC Ingolstadt 04 1.19 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.73 / defence 1.31, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 41% | Draw 30% | FC Ingolstadt 04 29%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 61%, FC Ingolstadt 04 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
FC Ingolstadt 04's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SSV Jahn Regensburg arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.64. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Ingolstadt 04 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.