Werder Bremen 1-1 SV Sandhausen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Werder Bremen at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs SV Sandhausen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 28 as Werder Bremen welcome SV Sandhausen to wohninvest WESERSTADION. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 April 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Werder Bremen stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen's home record at wohninvest WESERSTADION: 6W 3D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Sandhausen have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SV Sandhausen have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Werder Bremen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Werder Bremen, 0 for SV Sandhausen and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Werder Bremen in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
SV Sandhausen in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 63% and SV Sandhausen 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 74% | SV Sandhausen 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.32 xG and SV Sandhausen 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 1.134 / defence 0.871 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.770 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.422. Data: 27 Werder Bremen games / 27 SV Sandhausen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 43% | Draw 32% | SV Sandhausen 25%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | SV Sandhausen 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Werder Bremen are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Werder Bremen 50% | SV Sandhausen 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs SV Sandhausen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 43% | Draw 32% | SV Sandhausen 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Werder Bremen 1.32 / SV Sandhausen 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 1.134 / def 0.871 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.770 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
0.95
SV Sandhausen xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs SV Sandhausen kick off?
Werder Bremen vs SV Sandhausen kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs SV Sandhausen?
Werder Bremen 1 - 1 SV Sandhausen.
Where is Werder Bremen vs SV Sandhausen being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs SV Sandhausen part of?
Werder Bremen vs SV Sandhausen is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs SV Sandhausen?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 43% chance of winning, SV Sandhausen a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs SV Sandhausen?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Werder Bremen and SV Sandhausen will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs SV Sandhausen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and SV Sandhausen?
Record (1 meetings): Werder Bremen 0W | Draws 1 | SV Sandhausen 0W.
What form are Werder Bremen and SV Sandhausen in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. SV Sandhausen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 1.13x the league average against SV Sandhausen's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Sandhausen's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
43%
2.33
32%
3.10
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.27
0.95
SV Sandhausen xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
7%
15.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs SV Sandhausen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and SV Sandhausen expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 0.95 for SV Sandhausen, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs SV Sandhausen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 15W 6D 6L from 27 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Sandhausen, meanwhile, have gone 7W 9D 11L across 27 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for SV Sandhausen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Werder Bremen by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SV Sandhausen heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Werder Bremen have managed 7W 4D 2L from 13 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Sandhausen's away record stands at 5W 5D 3L across 13 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.11 PPG overall record — SV Sandhausen travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; SV Sandhausen are on 1.11 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
SV Sandhausen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and SV Sandhausen in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 15W 6D 6L in their last 27 games (1.89 PPG), while SV Sandhausen have gone 7W 9D 11L in their last 27 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or SV Sandhausen away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.92 PPG; SV Sandhausen away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Werder Bremen
2
Draws
0
SV Sandhausen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and SV Sandhausen?
From 2 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 0, SV Sandhausen have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and SV Sandhausen last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2022, when Werder Bremen 1-1 SV Sandhausen.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Werder Bremen see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
SV Sandhausen see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 54%, SV Sandhausen 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Werder Bremen) and 46% (SV Sandhausen).
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; SV Sandhausen in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / SV Sandhausen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play SV Sandhausen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Werder Bremen's games and 69% of SV Sandhausen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs SV Sandhausen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Werder Bremen's recent games and 46% of SV Sandhausen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Werder Bremen and SV Sandhausen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen and SV Sandhausen finished level at 1-1 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.32 xG and SV Sandhausen 0.95 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 1.13 / defence 0.87 against SV Sandhausen attack 0.77 / defence 1.04, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 43% | Draw 32% | SV Sandhausen 25%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 74%, SV Sandhausen 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Werder Bremen arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.