Holstein Kiel 1-0 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Holstein Kiel vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hamburger SV make the trip to Holstein-Stadion to face Holstein Kiel in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 April 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Holstein Kiel (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Holstein Kiel at Holstein-Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Hamburger SV have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Hamburger SV have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Holstein Kiel, 0 for Hamburger SV and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Holstein Kiel goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Holstein Kiel 61% and Hamburger SV 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 68% | Hamburger SV 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.14 xG and Hamburger SV 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.968 / defence 1.183 | Hamburger SV attack 0.924 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.389. Data: 28 Holstein Kiel games / 28 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 26% | Draw 30% | Hamburger SV 44%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Hamburger SV 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hamburger SV are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Holstein Kiel 50% | Hamburger SV 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 26% | Draw 30% | Hamburger SV 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.14 / Hamburger SV 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.968 / def 1.183 | Hamburger SV attack 0.924 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Hamburger SV xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs Hamburger SV kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs Hamburger SV?
Holstein Kiel 1 - 0 Hamburger SV.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs Hamburger SV part of?
Holstein Kiel vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 26% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Holstein Kiel and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Hamburger SV?
Record (1 meetings): Holstein Kiel 0W | Draws 1 | Hamburger SV 0W.
What form are Holstein Kiel and Hamburger SV in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Hamburger SV (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Holstein Kiel's attack at 0.97x the league average against Hamburger SV's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hamburger SV's attack (0.92x) against Holstein Kiel's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
26%
3.83
30%
3.29
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
2.66
1.52
Hamburger SV xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
6%
17.49
14%
7.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.6 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.52 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Holstein Kiel come into this having played 28 games, going 9W 7D 12L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Hamburger SV sit at 1.61 PPG from 28 outings (11W 12D 5L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Hamburger SV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Holstein Kiel — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Holstein Kiel's home form reads 6W 2D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Hamburger SV have taken 1.38 points per game from 13 outings (4W 6D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.82 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Hamburger SV in 71%.
Last 28 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Current Season
Hamburger SV
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 9W 7D 12L in their last 28 games (1.21 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 11W 12D 5L in their last 28 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or Hamburger SV away?
Holstein Kiel's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.54 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Holstein Kiel have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Holstein Kiel have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hamburger SV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Holstein Kiel
2
Draws
1
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Hamburger SV?
From 6 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 3, Hamburger SV have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Hamburger SV 0-1 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and Hamburger SV?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 38%, Hamburger SV 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Holstein Kiel) and 38% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Holstein Kiel have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play Hamburger SV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 69% of Hamburger SV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Holstein Kiel vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Holstein Kiel's recent games and 38% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Holstein Kiel and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Holstein Kiel defy the odds to beat Hamburger SV 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat Hamburger SV 1-0 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.14 xG and Hamburger SV 1.52 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hamburger SV landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.97 / defence 1.18 against Hamburger SV attack 0.92 / defence 1.01, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 26% | Draw 30% | Hamburger SV 44%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Holstein Kiel win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 68%, Hamburger SV 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Holstein Kiel winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.