Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 54%, yet in-form SpVgg Greuther Fürth provide a compelling counter-argument — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees SpVgg Greuther Fürth travel to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor to take on SV Darmstadt 98. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Darmstadt 98 stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor than their overall form suggests.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SpVgg Greuther Fürth are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for SV Darmstadt 98, 1 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 5–1 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 56% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 64% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.82 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.037 / defence 0.937 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.883 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.272. Data: 27 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 61 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 54% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 20%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5.00. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SpVgg Greuther Fürth (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 50% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (3 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 1W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W • Goals trend: 4.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: SV Darmstadt 98 6 – 6 SpVgg Greuther Fürth • H2H markets: BTTS 67% | Over 2.5 67% | Win rates: SV Darmstadt 98 33% / Draw 33% / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 54% / draw 26% / away 20% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 4.00 goals/game (67% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.88 (55% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 67%, Poisson BTTS probability 56% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
📈 Recent Form
• SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L • SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-D • SV Darmstadt 98 home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | CS 3 • SpVgg Greuther Fürth away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | CS 0 • Form edge: SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead by 0.70 PPG (1.40 vs 0.70) • xG vs form (SV Darmstadt 98): Poisson xG of 1.82 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.00 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (SpVgg Greuther Fürth): Poisson xG of 1.05 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.20 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.4 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.88 (55% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 56% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours SpVgg Greuther Fürth on PPG but Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 higher (54% vs 20% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 54% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.82 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.037 / def 0.937 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.883 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.05
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score probability matrix is a Premium feature
Upgrade to see the exact probability of every scoreline from 0-0 to 6-6, not just the headline 1X2 split.
Upgrade to Premium⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SV Darmstadt 98 1 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 54% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
• Record (3 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 1W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W • Goals trend: 4.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: SV Darmstadt 98 6 – 6 SpVgg Greuther Fürth • H2H markets: BTTS 67% | Over 2.5 67% | Win rates: SV Darmstadt 98 33% / Draw 33% / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 33% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 54% / draw 26% / away 20% • Goals corroboration (Over 2.5): H2H averages 4.00 goals/game (67% Over 2.5 historically) — Poisson total xG 2.88 (55% Over probability) — both data sources agree • BTTS corroboration: H2H BTTS rate 67%, Poisson BTTS probability 56% — BTTS Yes supported by both historical and model data
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
• SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-L • SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-D • SV Darmstadt 98 home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | CS 3 • SpVgg Greuther Fürth away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | CS 0 • Form edge: SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead by 0.70 PPG (1.40 vs 0.70) • xG vs form (SV Darmstadt 98): Poisson xG of 1.82 aligns with form scoring rate of 2.00 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (SpVgg Greuther Fürth): Poisson xG of 1.05 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.20 — consistent corroboration • Goals margin: form ~2.4 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 2.88 (55% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 56% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson divergence: form favours SpVgg Greuther Fürth on PPG but Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 higher (54% vs 20% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth) — underlying attack/defence strengths may not be reflected in recent results
What do the betting odds say about SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture