🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 75%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Elversberg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

SV Elversberg host SSV Jahn Regensburg at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025 at 12:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Elversberg stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SV Elversberg's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

SSV Jahn Regensburg — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SSV Jahn Regensburg's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

SV Elversberg are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for SV Elversberg, 1 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

SV Elversberg in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 59% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Elversberg 45% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 59% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 2.65 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 1.170 / defence 1.163 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.576 / defence 1.561. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.263. SSV Jahn Regensburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.561 — this is suppressing SV Elversberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 SV Elversberg games / 27 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 75% | Draw 16% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 9%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 1.33 | Draw 6.25 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 11.11. The model has a clear lean to SV Elversberg (75%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, SV Elversberg are the pick at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: SV Elversberg 70% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights