Eintracht Braunschweig 3-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees SC Paderborn 07 travel to Eintracht-Stadion to take on Eintracht Braunschweig. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 April 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Eintracht Braunschweig — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eintracht Braunschweig have posted 3W 4D 3L at Eintracht-Stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SC Paderborn 07 are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Eintracht Braunschweig, 2 for SC Paderborn 07 and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Braunschweig 48% versus SC Paderborn 07 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 51% | SC Paderborn 07 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 0.85 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.762 / defence 1.208 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.996 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.280. Eintracht Braunschweig's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SC Paderborn 07's defence strength of 0.764 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 61 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 61 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 19% | Draw 30% | SC Paderborn 07 52%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 5.26 | Draw 3.33 | SC Paderborn 07 1.92. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Eintracht Braunschweig 50% | SC Paderborn 07 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 4 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 19% | Draw 30% | SC Paderborn 07 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 0.85 / SC Paderborn 07 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.762 / def 1.208 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.996 / def 0.764 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.54
SC Paderborn 07 xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 4 April 2025 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07?
Eintracht Braunschweig 3 - 2 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 19% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 52% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (5 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 1W | Draws 2 | SC Paderborn 07 2W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Eintracht Braunschweig's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 0-2 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
19%
5.28
30%
3.38
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.40
1.54
SC Paderborn 07 xG
5.28
19%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
4%
24.62
22%
4.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 14.0 | 10.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.54 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eintracht Braunschweig's recent record stands at 16W 14D 31L from 61 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 27W 16D 18L across 61 games — 1.59 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Paderborn 07 by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eintracht Braunschweig heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Eintracht Braunschweig have managed 11W 8D 11L from 30 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 13W 10D 7L across 30 trips, a 1.63 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.62 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 69%.
Last 61 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 16W 14D 31L in their last 61 games (1.02 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 27W 16D 18L in their last 61 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.37 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07 runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2023, when SC Paderborn 07 won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Braunschweig's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
3
Draws
3
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07?
From 8 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 1-1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 47%, SC Paderborn 07 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 67% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Eintracht Braunschweig have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Eintracht Braunschweig's games and 73% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Eintracht Braunschweig's matches and 67% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Eintracht Braunschweig defy the odds to beat SC Paderborn 07 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Braunschweig beat SC Paderborn 07 3-2 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 0.85 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.54 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Eintracht Braunschweig beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.76 / defence 1.21 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.00 / defence 0.76, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 19% | Draw 30% | SC Paderborn 07 52%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Eintracht Braunschweig win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 51%, SC Paderborn 07 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Eintracht Braunschweig winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.