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Poisson model rates SSV Ulm 1846 at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

SSV Ulm 1846 host SV Darmstadt 98 at Donaustadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 March 2025 at 17:30 UTC.

Form Guide

SSV Ulm 1846 — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SSV Ulm 1846, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SSV Ulm 1846 at Donaustadion this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — SSV Ulm 1846 at 0.70 PPG versus SV Darmstadt 98's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 0, SV Darmstadt 98 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

SSV Ulm 1846 trading profile (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Ulm 1846 54% versus SV Darmstadt 98 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Ulm 1846 38% | SV Darmstadt 98 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Ulm 1846 1.44 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.754 / defence 1.015 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.921 / defence 1.317. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.294. SSV Ulm 1846's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.44 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SV Darmstadt 98 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.317 — this is suppressing SSV Ulm 1846's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 SSV Ulm 1846 games / 26 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 41% | Draw 29% | SV Darmstadt 98 30%. Fair-value odds: SSV Ulm 1846 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | SV Darmstadt 98 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SSV Ulm 1846 at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SSV Ulm 1846 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SSV Ulm 1846 50% | SV Darmstadt 98 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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