SV Darmstadt 98 1-0 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor plays host to SV Darmstadt 98 versus 1. FC Magdeburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SV Darmstadt 98 have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
1. FC Magdeburg away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for SV Darmstadt 98, 1.60 for 1. FC Magdeburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SV Darmstadt 98 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, 1. FC Magdeburg in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: SV Darmstadt 98 1W, 1. FC Magdeburg 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
1. FC Magdeburg half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 50% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 47% | 1. FC Magdeburg 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.59 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.940 / defence 0.887 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.947 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.348. Data: 66 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 32 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 48% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Magdeburg 27%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | 1. FC Magdeburg 3.70. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Darmstadt 98 at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 60% | 1. FC Magdeburg 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 48% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Magdeburg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.59 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.940 / def 0.887 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.947 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.13
1. FC Magdeburg xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 19 May 2023 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
SV Darmstadt 98 1 - 0 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 48% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (1 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 1W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Magdeburg 0W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 0.94x the league average against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (0.95x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 66/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
48%
2.09
25%
3.99
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.72
1.13
1. FC Magdeburg xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
6%
18.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.13 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 32 games, going 19W 7D 6L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, 1. FC Magdeburg sit at 1.25 PPG from 32 outings (11W 7D 14L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five.
SV Darmstadt 98 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 10W 5D 1L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Magdeburg have taken 1.31 points per game from 16 outings (6W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.38 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg in 62%.
Defensively: SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Current Season
1. FC Magdeburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 19W 7D 6L in their last 32 games (2.00 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 11W 7D 14L in their last 32 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 2.19 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.31 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or 1. FC Magdeburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, 1. FC Magdeburg in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Magdeburg won 4-1 on 2 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SV Darmstadt 98
2
Draws
2
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when 1. FC Magdeburg 1-1 SV Darmstadt 98.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 56%, 1. FC Magdeburg 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for SV Darmstadt 98 and 81% for 1. FC Magdeburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; 1. FC Magdeburg in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 69% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 81% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SV Darmstadt 98 edge out 1. FC Magdeburg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat 1. FC Magdeburg 1-0 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.59 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.13 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Magdeburg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.94 / defence 0.89 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.95 / defence 1.08, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 48% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Magdeburg 27%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 47%, 1. FC Magdeburg 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.