SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SpVgg Greuther Fürth face SC Paderborn 07.

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Match Analysis

SpVgg Greuther Fürth host SC Paderborn 07 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 5 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.40 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 60% of SC Paderborn 07's (from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 home games and SC Paderborn 07's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 4, SC Paderborn 07 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.1 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2025, ended SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–2 SC Paderborn 07 — a SC Paderborn 07 win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 61% and SC Paderborn 07 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64% | SC Paderborn 07 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SpVgg Greuther Fürth surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while SC Paderborn 07 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.36 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.022 / defence 1.157 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.984 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.326. Data: built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 61 games and SC Paderborn 07's last 61.

Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 33% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 40%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.00 | Draw 3.76 | SC Paderborn 07 2.49. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 home games and SC Paderborn 07's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% (last 10 home games) | SC Paderborn 07 60% (last 10 away games).

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