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Shock result as SpVgg Greuther Fürth defy the odds to beat Arminia Bielefeld 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Arminia Bielefeld 2-1 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 23, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.49 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.54 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.04 / defence 1.42 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.80 / defence 0.97, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 35% | Draw 27% | Arminia Bielefeld 37%, with Arminia Bielefeld to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual SpVgg Greuther Fürth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 73%, Arminia Bielefeld 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.86 PPG, Arminia Bielefeld 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights