SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Arminia Bielefeld at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SpVgg Greuther Fürth face Arminia Bielefeld.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Arminia Bielefeld meet at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.

Current Form

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.

Arminia Bielefeld (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for SpVgg Greuther Fürth against 1.00 for Arminia Bielefeld. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, SpVgg Greuther Fürth edge it 2 wins to 0, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Sep 2025, ended SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3–1 Arminia Bielefeld — a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 22 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

Arminia Bielefeld goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 22 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% versus Arminia Bielefeld 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 73% | Arminia Bielefeld 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.49 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.044 / defence 1.424 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.801 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.349. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating of 1.424 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Arminia Bielefeld's projected output up. Data: built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 56 games and Arminia Bielefeld's last 22.

Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 35% | Draw 27% | Arminia Bielefeld 37%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.84 | Draw 3.64 | Arminia Bielefeld 2.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.49 / 1.54) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Arminia Bielefeld as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arminia Bielefeld if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 home games and Arminia Bielefeld's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% (last 10 home games) | Arminia Bielefeld 60% (last 10 away games).

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