SC Paderborn 07 0-0 SSV Ulm 1846 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Ulm 1846 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
SSV Ulm 1846 travel to Home Deluxe Arena to take on SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SC Paderborn 07 stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 3 games, SSV Ulm 1846 have recorded 0W 0D 3L — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent momentum — 2.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 67% of SSV Ulm 1846's (from SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and SSV Ulm 1846's last 3 games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
SSV Ulm 1846 in-play tendencies (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 100% and SSV Ulm 1846 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 67% | SSV Ulm 1846 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.88 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.067 / defence 1.014 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.664 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.324. SSV Ulm 1846's attack rating of 0.664 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 37 games and SSV Ulm 1846's last 3.
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 60% | Draw 24% | SSV Ulm 1846 16%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.68 | Draw 4.11 | SSV Ulm 1846 6.20. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (60%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and SSV Ulm 1846's last 3 games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 60% (last 10 home games) | SSV Ulm 1846 67% (last 3 games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Ulm 1846 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 4 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 60% | Draw 24% | SSV Ulm 1846 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.88 / SSV Ulm 1846 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.067 / def 1.014 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.664 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
0.89
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Ulm 1846 FAQs
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Ulm 1846 kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Ulm 1846 kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Ulm 1846?
SC Paderborn 07 0 - 0 SSV Ulm 1846.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Ulm 1846 being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Ulm 1846 part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Ulm 1846 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 4) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 60% chance of winning, SSV Ulm 1846 a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Ulm 1846 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Ulm 1846 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SC Paderborn 07's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against SSV Ulm 1846's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. The same calculation in reverse, SSV Ulm 1846's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SC Paderborn 07's last 37 games and SSV Ulm 1846's last 3 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
60%
1.68
24%
4.11
16%
6.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.77
0.89
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
6.20
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
15%
6.58
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
2%
40.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Ulm 1846 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Ulm 1846 expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 0.89 for SSV Ulm 1846, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 1D 0L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D.
On the other side, SSV Ulm 1846 sit at 0.00 PPG from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L), a run that reads L-L-L across their last five.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.33 PPG clear of SSV Ulm 1846 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; SSV Ulm 1846 are on 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; SSV Ulm 1846 in 67%.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
SSV Ulm 1846
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07 (Home) vs SSV Ulm 1846 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
SSV Ulm 1846
Early Season
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Ulm 1846 Form FAQs
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Ulm 1846 in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2024. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
0
SSV Ulm 1846
Recent Meetings
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Ulm 1846 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Ulm 1846?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Ulm 1846 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 February 2025: SSV Ulm 1846 0-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Ulm 1846?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
SSV Ulm 1846 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Paderborn 07 at 100%, SSV Ulm 1846 at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SC Paderborn 07 and 67% for SSV Ulm 1846. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Ulm 1846 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / SSV Ulm 1846 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs SSV Ulm 1846 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Ulm 1846 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 67% of SSV Ulm 1846's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Ulm 1846 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 67% of SSV Ulm 1846's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Ulm 1846 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of SC Paderborn 07's recent matches and 67% of SSV Ulm 1846's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at SC Paderborn 07's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 and SSV Ulm 1846 finished level at 0-0 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.88 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 0.89 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 fell 1.9 short of their projected output. SSV Ulm 1846 landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.07 / defence 1.01 against SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.66 / defence 1.12, drawn from 37/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 60% | Draw 24% | SSV Ulm 1846 16%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 67%, SSV Ulm 1846 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SC Paderborn 07 managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Ulm 1846 conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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