1. FC Nürnberg 0-4 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg meet at Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 August 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Nürnberg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. 1. FC Nürnberg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Max-Morlock-Stadion, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — 1. FC Nürnberg are significantly better at Max-Morlock-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. 1. FC Magdeburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Magdeburg away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
1. FC Magdeburg arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1 for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Nürnberg — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
1. FC Magdeburg — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 60% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 62% | 1. FC Magdeburg 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.68 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.064 / defence 1.005 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.133 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.266. Data: 37 1. FC Nürnberg games / 37 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 42% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Magdeburg 32%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | 1. FC Magdeburg 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Nürnberg at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form 1. FC Magdeburg (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Nürnberg 40% | 1. FC Magdeburg 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 42% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Magdeburg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.68 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.064 / def 1.005 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.133 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.44
1. FC Magdeburg xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
1. FC Nürnberg 0 - 4 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 42% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (4 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 2W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Magdeburg 1W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates 1. FC Nürnberg's attack at 1.06x the league average against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (1.13x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
42%
2.38
26%
3.84
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
3.12
1.44
1. FC Magdeburg xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
10%
10.06
6%
16.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.44 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Nürnberg come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 8D 17L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, 1. FC Magdeburg sit at 1.16 PPG from 37 outings (10W 13D 14L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.16 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
1. FC Nürnberg's home form reads 7W 4D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Magdeburg have taken 0.94 points per game from 18 outings (4W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.38 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 37 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Early Season
1. FC Magdeburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 12W 8D 17L in their last 37 games (1.19 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 10W 13D 14L in their last 37 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.39 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Magdeburg won 0-4 on 31 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
1. FC Nürnberg
1
Draws
3
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 4, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when 1. FC Nürnberg 1-0 1. FC Magdeburg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 50%, 1. FC Magdeburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 44% (1. FC Magdeburg).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 33% of games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 50% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 44% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Magdeburg run riot with a 0-4 hammering of 1. FC Nürnberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat 1. FC Nürnberg 0-4 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.68 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.44 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg fell 1.7 short of their projected output. 1. FC Magdeburg outscored their 1.44 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.06 / defence 1.00 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.13 / defence 1.04, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 42% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Magdeburg 32%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual 1. FC Magdeburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 62%, 1. FC Magdeburg 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.19 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Magdeburg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.