SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth host SC Paderborn 07 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 August 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.60 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 3, SC Paderborn 07 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2024, ended 1–0 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 53% and SC Paderborn 07 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 53% | SC Paderborn 07 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.60 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.151 / defence 1.006 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.151 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.288. Data: 36 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 36 SC Paderborn 07 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 39% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 34%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | SC Paderborn 07 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 90% | SC Paderborn 07 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 39% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.60 / SC Paderborn 07 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.151 / def 1.006 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.151 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.49
SC Paderborn 07 xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 39% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (4 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07 in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
39%
2.56
27%
3.73
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.09
1.49
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
9%
11.39
7%
14.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.49 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 15W 9D 12L from 36 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 17W 7D 12L across 36 games — 1.61 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.50 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 11W 4D 3L from 18 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 9W 3D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.64 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 72%.
Last 36 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 15W 9D 12L in their last 36 games (1.50 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 17W 7D 12L in their last 36 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 2.06 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.67 PPG.
Have SpVgg Greuther Fürth or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
SC Paderborn 07 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
3
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07?
From 8 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 4, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 61%, SC Paderborn 07 at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 83% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 78% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 83% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 3, as SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07 drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.60 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.49 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.15 / defence 1.01 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.15 / defence 0.92, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 39% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 34%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 53%, SC Paderborn 07 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.50 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.