Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur Spiel-Arena plays host to Fortuna Düsseldorf versus Hannover 96 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Friday 30 August 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fortuna Düsseldorf have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Fortuna Düsseldorf have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fortuna Düsseldorf at Merkur Spiel-Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
Hannover 96 (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hannover 96 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hannover 96 away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Fortuna Düsseldorf's favour (2.10 vs 1.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1 for Hannover 96 and 5 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Fortuna Düsseldorf half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Hannover 96 half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% and Hannover 96 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% | Hannover 96 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.21 xG and Hannover 96 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.954 / defence 0.830 | Hannover 96 attack 0.886 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.229. Data: 37 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 37 Hannover 96 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 41% | Draw 34% | Hannover 96 25%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Hannover 96 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Düsseldorf at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 40% | Hannover 96 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 30 Aug 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 41% | Draw 34% | Hannover 96 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.21 / Hannover 96 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.954 / def 0.830 | Hannover 96 attack 0.886 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Hannover 96 xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96 kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 30 August 2024 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1 - 0 Hannover 96.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96 part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96 is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 41% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 25% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hannover 96 will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hannover 96?
Record (6 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 0W | Draws 5 | Hannover 96 1W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hannover 96 in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Hannover 96 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 0.95x the league average against Hannover 96's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hannover 96's attack (0.89x) against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
41%
2.46
34%
2.93
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.11
0.90
Hannover 96 xG
2.46
41%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
8%
13.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.9 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.2 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 0.90 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent record stands at 20W 9D 8L from 37 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hannover 96, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 8L across 37 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hannover 96, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.86 PPG for Fortuna Düsseldorf against 1.59 for Hannover 96. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fortuna Düsseldorf have managed 9W 4D 5L from 18 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hannover 96's away record stands at 5W 8D 5L across 18 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 1.68 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hannover 96 in 62%.
Last 37 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Early Season
Hannover 96
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 20W 9D 8L in their last 37 games (1.86 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 15W 14D 8L in their last 37 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or Hannover 96 away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.72 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Hannover 96 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hannover 96 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
6
Draws
3
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hannover 96?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 1, Hannover 96 have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hannover 96 last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Hannover 96 2-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hannover 96?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 61%, Hannover 96 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) and 56% (Hannover 96).
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play Hannover 96?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 61% of Hannover 96's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent games and 56% of Hannover 96's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hannover 96 tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Hannover 96 in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Düsseldorf edge out Hannover 96 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Hannover 96 1-0 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.21 xG and Hannover 96 0.90 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hannover 96 landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.95 / defence 0.83 against Hannover 96 attack 0.89 / defence 0.82, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 41% | Draw 34% | Hannover 96 25%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%, Hannover 96 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Hannover 96's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.86 PPG, Hannover 96 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Düsseldorf win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.