SC Paderborn 07 0-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SC Paderborn 07 face SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 18). Kick-off is Sunday 21 January 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SC Paderborn 07 stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SC Paderborn 07's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SC Paderborn 07 1.90 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 60% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's (from SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 2 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Jul 2023, ended SC Paderborn 07 0–5 SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 63% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 74% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SC Paderborn 07 surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.55 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.038 / defence 0.944 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.865 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.429. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 51 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 51.
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 46% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 28%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.19 | Draw 3.78 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.58. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 70% (last 10 home games) | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 18 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 January 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 46% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.55 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.038 / def 0.944 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.865 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.17
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth FAQs
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 21 January 2024 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SC Paderborn 07 0 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 18) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 46% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 1.04x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SC Paderborn 07's last 51 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
46%
2.19
26%
3.78
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.72
1.17
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
6%
16.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.17 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 24W 10D 17L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 18W 16D 17L from 51 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.61 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 25 home games (16W 2D 7L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 4W 7D 14L from their last 25 away games — 0.76 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.45 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 61%.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
SC Paderborn 07 (Home) vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Form FAQs
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 24W 10D 17L in their last 51 games (1.61 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 18W 16D 17L in their last 51 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 2.00 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 5 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SC Paderborn 07 have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Jul 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5-0 SC Paderborn 07.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2026: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 60%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for SC Paderborn 07 and 56% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 68% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 56% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of SC Paderborn 07's recent matches and 88% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SpVgg Greuther Fürth defy the odds to beat SC Paderborn 07 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat SC Paderborn 07 0-1 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.55 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.17 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SC Paderborn 07 fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.04 / defence 0.94 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.86 / defence 0.94, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 46% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 28%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual SpVgg Greuther Fürth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 74%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.61 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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