1. FC Nürnberg 3-0 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock meet at Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 January 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
1. FC Nürnberg (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg at Max-Morlock-Stadion this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hansa Rostock's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. 1. FC Nürnberg's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Hansa Rostock's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1 for Hansa Rostock and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2023, ended 0–2 with Hansa Rostock winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Nürnberg — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hansa Rostock — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 45% versus Hansa Rostock 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 51% | Hansa Rostock 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.33 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.790 / defence 1.162 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.786 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.444. 1. FC Nürnberg's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 1. FC Nürnberg games / 51 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 37% | Draw 27% | Hansa Rostock 36%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Hansa Rostock 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Nürnberg are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 60% | Hansa Rostock 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jan 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 37% | Draw 27% | Hansa Rostock 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.33 / Hansa Rostock 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.790 / def 1.162 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.786 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Hansa Rostock xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock?
1. FC Nürnberg 3 - 0 Hansa Rostock.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 37% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock?
Record (5 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 2W | Draws 2 | Hansa Rostock 1W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Nürnberg's attack at 0.79x the league average against Hansa Rostock's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hansa Rostock's attack (0.79x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
37%
2.73
27%
3.66
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.65
1.32
Hansa Rostock xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
10%
10.22
10%
10.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.32 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Nürnberg come into this having played 51 games, going 17W 12D 22L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hansa Rostock sit at 1.14 PPG from 51 outings (17W 7D 27L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.14 for Hansa Rostock. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
1. FC Nürnberg's home form reads 10W 6D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Hansa Rostock have taken 1.16 points per game from 25 outings (8W 5D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 0.96 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 51 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 17W 12D 22L in their last 51 games (1.24 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 17W 7D 27L in their last 51 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or Hansa Rostock away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.44 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Nürnberg won 3-0 on 20 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
1. FC Nürnberg
2
Draws
1
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, Hansa Rostock have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when 1. FC Nürnberg 3-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 40%, Hansa Rostock 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 48% (Hansa Rostock).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 32% of games; Hansa Rostock in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 36% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 48% of Hansa Rostock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Nürnberg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat Hansa Rostock 3-0 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.33 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.32 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hansa Rostock landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.79 / defence 1.16 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.79 / defence 1.05, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 37% | Draw 27% | Hansa Rostock 36%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 51%, Hansa Rostock 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.24 PPG, Hansa Rostock 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.