VfL Osnabrück 0-0 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfL Osnabrück vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfL Osnabrück host SC Paderborn 07 at Bremer Brücke in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 January 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
VfL Osnabrück — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for VfL Osnabrück, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bremer Brücke, VfL Osnabrück have gone 1W 3D 5L this season (9 games, 0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. SC Paderborn 07's 1.60 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of VfL Osnabrück's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VfL Osnabrück register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, VfL Osnabrück have won 0, SC Paderborn 07 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
VfL Osnabrück in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Osnabrück 61% and SC Paderborn 07 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfL Osnabrück 56% | SC Paderborn 07 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Osnabrück 1.24 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Osnabrück attack 0.728 / defence 1.160 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.085 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.388. VfL Osnabrück's attack strength of 0.728 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 VfL Osnabrück games / 52 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Osnabrück 27% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 49%. Fair-value odds: VfL Osnabrück 3.70 | Draw 4.17 | SC Paderborn 07 2.04. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: VfL Osnabrück 67% | SC Paderborn 07 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Osnabrück vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Bremer Brücke • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Osnabrück 27% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG VfL Osnabrück 1.24 / SC Paderborn 07 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Osnabrück attack 0.728 / def 1.160 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.085 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
VfL Osnabrück xG
Expected Goals
1.75
SC Paderborn 07 xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Osnabrück vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
VfL Osnabrück vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Bremer Brücke.
What was the final score in VfL Osnabrück vs SC Paderborn 07?
VfL Osnabrück 0 - 0 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is VfL Osnabrück vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Bremer Brücke.
What competition is VfL Osnabrück vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
VfL Osnabrück vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Osnabrück vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives VfL Osnabrück a 27% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Osnabrück vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both VfL Osnabrück and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Osnabrück vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Osnabrück and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (1 meetings): VfL Osnabrück 0W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 0W.
What form are VfL Osnabrück and SC Paderborn 07 in?
VfL Osnabrück (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VfL Osnabrück's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus VfL Osnabrück's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
27%
3.68
24%
4.25
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
VfL Osnabrück xG
Total xG
2.99
1.75
SC Paderborn 07 xG
3.68
27%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
17%
5.74
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
5%
21.13
14%
7.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Osnabrück vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are VfL Osnabrück and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for VfL Osnabrück and 1.75 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Osnabrück vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 18 outings, VfL Osnabrück have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 1W 6D 11L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for VfL Osnabrück is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07's form line: 8W 3D 7L from 18 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SC Paderborn 07 are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfL Osnabrück.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, VfL Osnabrück have posted 0.67 PPG from 9 outings (1W 3D 5L).
On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 4W 1D 4L from 9 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VfL Osnabrück are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.56 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Osnabrück have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 72%.
Last 18 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Osnabrück
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Osnabrück and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
VfL Osnabrück have gone 1W 6D 11L in their last 18 games (0.50 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 8W 3D 7L in their last 18 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Osnabrück at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Osnabrück at home: 0.67 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfL Osnabrück and SC Paderborn 07 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
VfL Osnabrück
2
Draws
0
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Osnabrück and SC Paderborn 07?
From 2 meetings on record, VfL Osnabrück have won 0, SC Paderborn 07 have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfL Osnabrück and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when VfL Osnabrück 0-0 SC Paderborn 07.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfL Osnabrück are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfL Osnabrück at 67%, SC Paderborn 07 at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for VfL Osnabrück and 89% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Osnabrück have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Osnabrück home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Osnabrück play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of VfL Osnabrück's games and 78% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Osnabrück vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of VfL Osnabrück's matches and 89% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do VfL Osnabrück and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
VfL Osnabrück have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at VfL Osnabrück's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Osnabrück and SC Paderborn 07 finished level at 0-0 at Bremer Brücke, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Osnabrück 1.24 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.75 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. VfL Osnabrück fell 1.2 short of their projected output. SC Paderborn 07 landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Osnabrück attack 0.73 / defence 1.16 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.08 / defence 1.06, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Osnabrück 27% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 49%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Osnabrück 56%, SC Paderborn 07 78%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Osnabrück's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. VfL Osnabrück (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.