Holstein Kiel 1-2 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Holstein Kiel (57%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Holstein Kiel face Eintracht Braunschweig.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Holstein Kiel welcome Eintracht Braunschweig to Holstein-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 18). Kick-off is Friday 19 January 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Holstein Kiel stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Holstein Kiel's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Eintracht Braunschweig — last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Eintracht Braunschweig away from home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Holstein Kiel are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Holstein Kiel: 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Eintracht Braunschweig, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 30 Jul 2023, ended Holstein Kiel 1–0 Eintracht Braunschweig — a Holstein Kiel win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Holstein Kiel and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Holstein Kiel in-play and half-time data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play and half-time data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Holstein Kiel 71% and Eintracht Braunschweig 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 69% | Eintracht Braunschweig 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 2.17 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 1.195 / defence 1.106 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.815 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.436. Data: built from Holstein Kiel's last 51 games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 51.
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 57% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Braunschweig 22%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 1.76 | Draw 4.68 | Eintracht Braunschweig 4.59. The model has a clear lean to Holstein Kiel (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.17 / 1.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Holstein Kiel at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Holstein Kiel's last 10 home games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Holstein Kiel 80% (last 10 home games) | Eintracht Braunschweig 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 18 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 January 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 57% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Braunschweig 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Holstein Kiel 2.17 / Eintracht Braunschweig 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 1.195 / def 1.106 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.815 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig FAQs
What time does Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 19 January 2024 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Holstein Kiel 1 - 2 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 18) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 57% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Holstein Kiel's attack rating (1.20) and Eintracht Braunschweig's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Braunschweig's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Holstein Kiel's last 51 games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
57%
1.76
21%
4.68
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
3.46
1.29
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
11%
8.73
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
2%
40.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.29 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Holstein Kiel have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 23W 12D 16L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Eintracht Braunschweig's form line: 13W 11D 27L from 51 games, 0.98 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Holstein Kiel are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Eintracht Braunschweig.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Holstein Kiel have posted 1.48 PPG from their last 25 home games (11W 4D 10L).
On the road, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 3W 6D 16L from their last 25 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Holstein Kiel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.14 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Eintracht Braunschweig in 61%.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
Holstein Kiel (Home) vs Eintracht Braunschweig (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Holstein Kiel
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig Form FAQs
What form are Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 23W 12D 16L in their last 51 games (1.59 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 13W 11D 27L in their last 51 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
Holstein Kiel's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.48 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Aug 2022, when Holstein Kiel won Holstein Kiel 3-0 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Holstein Kiel's record when hosting Eintracht Braunschweig specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Holstein Kiel have won 4, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Holstein Kiel at 80%, Eintracht Braunschweig at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Holstein Kiel and 64% for Eintracht Braunschweig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Holstein Kiel's games and 64% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 64% of Eintracht Braunschweig's.
Do Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 68% of Eintracht Braunschweig's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Eintracht Braunschweig defy the odds to beat Holstein Kiel 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Braunschweig beat Holstein Kiel 1-2 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 2.17 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.29 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Holstein Kiel fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 1.20 / defence 1.11 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.81 / defence 1.12, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 57% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Braunschweig 22%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Eintracht Braunschweig win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 69%, Eintracht Braunschweig 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Eintracht Braunschweig winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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