Holstein Kiel 1-2 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Holstein Kiel (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Holstein Kiel face Eintracht Braunschweig.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 18 as Holstein Kiel welcome Eintracht Braunschweig to Holstein-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 19 January 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Holstein Kiel stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Holstein Kiel's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Holstein-Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Holstein-Stadion this season.
Eintracht Braunschweig — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Braunschweig away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Holstein Kiel are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Holstein Kiel: 3 wins from 3 previous clashes against 0 for Eintracht Braunschweig, with 0 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2023, ended 1–0 with Holstein Kiel winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Holstein Kiel and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Holstein Kiel in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Holstein Kiel 71% and Eintracht Braunschweig 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 69% | Eintracht Braunschweig 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 2.17 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 1.195 / defence 1.106 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.815 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.436. Data: 51 Holstein Kiel games / 51 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 57% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Braunschweig 22%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Eintracht Braunschweig 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Holstein Kiel (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Holstein Kiel at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Holstein Kiel 80% | Eintracht Braunschweig 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Jan 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 57% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Braunschweig 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 65% | xG Holstein Kiel 2.17 / Eintracht Braunschweig 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 1.195 / def 1.106 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.815 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 19 January 2024 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Holstein Kiel 1 - 2 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 57% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Record (3 meetings): Holstein Kiel 3W | Draws 0 | Eintracht Braunschweig 0W.
What form are Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Holstein Kiel's attack rating (1.20) and Eintracht Braunschweig's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Braunschweig's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
57%
1.76
21%
4.68
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
3.46
1.29
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
11%
8.73
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
2%
40.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.29 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Holstein Kiel have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 23W 12D 16L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Braunschweig's form line: 13W 11D 27L from 51 games, 0.98 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Holstein Kiel are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Eintracht Braunschweig.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Holstein Kiel have posted 1.48 PPG from 25 outings (11W 4D 10L).
On the road, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 3W 6D 16L from 25 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Holstein Kiel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.14 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Eintracht Braunschweig in 61%.
Last 51 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 23W 12D 16L in their last 51 games (1.59 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 13W 11D 27L in their last 51 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
Holstein Kiel's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.48 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2022, when Holstein Kiel won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Holstein Kiel's record when hosting Eintracht Braunschweig specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
1
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 6 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 4, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Holstein Kiel 2-0 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Holstein Kiel at 80%, Eintracht Braunschweig at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Holstein Kiel and 64% for Eintracht Braunschweig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Holstein Kiel's games and 64% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 64% of Eintracht Braunschweig's.
Do Holstein Kiel and Eintracht Braunschweig tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Eintracht Braunschweig defy the odds to beat Holstein Kiel 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Braunschweig beat Holstein Kiel 1-2 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 2.17 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.29 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Holstein Kiel fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 1.20 / defence 1.11 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.81 / defence 1.12, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 57% | Draw 21% | Eintracht Braunschweig 22%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Eintracht Braunschweig win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 69%, Eintracht Braunschweig 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Eintracht Braunschweig winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.