SC Paderborn 07 2-3 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SC Paderborn 07 face FC Schalke 04.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 host FC Schalke 04 at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 31). Kick-off is Sunday 26 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 6W 4D 0L — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
SC Paderborn 07 at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Schalke 04 stand at 6W 4D 0L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, FC Schalke 04 have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (SC Paderborn 07) versus 2.20 (FC Schalke 04). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 90% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 60% of FC Schalke 04's (from SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and FC Schalke 04's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 4 for FC Schalke 04 and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Nov 2025, ended SC Paderborn 07 1–2 FC Schalke 04 — a FC Schalke 04 win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 67% and FC Schalke 04 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 61% | FC Schalke 04 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.53 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.263 / defence 1.101 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.944 / defence 0.763. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.320. SC Paderborn 07 carry an above-average attack rating of 1.263 — their 1.53 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. FC Schalke 04 bring a tight defence (rating 0.763, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling SC Paderborn 07's projected output down. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 64 games and FC Schalke 04's last 64.
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 40% | Draw 28% | FC Schalke 04 32%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.53 | Draw 3.56 | FC Schalke 04 3.09. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.53 / 1.37) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and FC Schalke 04's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 90% (last 10 home games) | FC Schalke 04 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 31 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 40% | Draw 28% | FC Schalke 04 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.53 / FC Schalke 04 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.263 / def 1.101 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.944 / def 0.763 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.37
FC Schalke 04 xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 FAQs
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
SC Paderborn 07 2 - 3 FC Schalke 04.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 31) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 40% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Paderborn 07's attack rating (1.26) and FC Schalke 04's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SC Paderborn 07's last 64 games and FC Schalke 04's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
40%
2.53
28%
3.56
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.90
1.37
FC Schalke 04 xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
10%
9.96
7%
14.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.37 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 32W 17D 15L from 64 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five.
FC Schalke 04, meanwhile, have gone 28W 15D 21L across 64 games — 1.55 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.77 PPG, FC Schalke 04 on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Paderborn 07 have managed 18W 5D 9L from their last 32 home games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Schalke 04's away record stands at 11W 9D 12L across their last 32 away games, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.52 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
FC Schalke 04
Current Season
SC Paderborn 07 (Home) vs FC Schalke 04 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
FC Schalke 04
Current Season
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 Form FAQs
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 32W 17D 15L in their last 64 games (1.77 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 28W 15D 21L in their last 64 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.84 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 26 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Schalke 04 have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting FC Schalke 04 specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
5
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, FC Schalke 04 have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2026: SC Paderborn 07 2-3 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04?
FC Schalke 04 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 75%, FC Schalke 04 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (SC Paderborn 07) and 47% (FC Schalke 04). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Schalke 04 in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 50% of FC Schalke 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 47% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of SC Paderborn 07's recent matches and 69% of FC Schalke 04's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Schalke 04 defy the odds to beat SC Paderborn 07 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Schalke 04 beat SC Paderborn 07 2-3 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.53 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.37 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. FC Schalke 04 outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.26 / defence 1.10 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.94 / defence 0.76, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 40% | Draw 28% | FC Schalke 04 32%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual FC Schalke 04 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 61%, FC Schalke 04 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.77 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More 2. Bundesliga fixtures — matchday 31
All 2. Bundesliga fixtures →
More German football predictions →