Preußen Münster 2-3 1. FC Kaiserslautern – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Preußen Münster at 43%, yet the head-to-head data favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern — this Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Preussenstadion plays host to Preußen Münster versus 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 23). Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 12:30 UK time.
Current Form
Preußen Münster's record over their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Preußen Münster have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Kaiserslautern (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
1. FC Kaiserslautern away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have the stronger record — 3 wins to Preußen Münster's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 Sep 2025, ended Preußen Münster 1–4 1. FC Kaiserslautern — a 1. FC Kaiserslautern win.
The H2H data backs the away side. 1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Preußen Münster half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
1. FC Kaiserslautern half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Preußen Münster 62% and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preußen Münster 48% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preußen Münster 1.43 xG and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preußen Münster attack 0.835 / defence 0.984 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.822 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.354. Data: built from Preußen Münster's last 56 games and 1. FC Kaiserslautern's last 56.
Result probabilities: Preußen Münster 43% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 27%. Fair-value odds: Preußen Münster 2.34 | Draw 3.29 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3.72. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Preußen Münster as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Preußen Münster if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Preußen Münster 80% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 23 | Venue: Preussenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preußen Münster 43% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Preußen Münster 1.43 / 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Preußen Münster attack 0.835 / def 0.984 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.822 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Preußen Münster (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Preußen Münster xG
Expected Goals
1.09
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern FAQs
What time does Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern kick off?
Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Preussenstadion.
What was the final score in Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Preußen Münster 2 - 3 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
Where is Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern being played?
The match is being played at Preussenstadion.
What competition is Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern part of?
Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 23) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our statistical model gives Preußen Münster a 43% chance of winning, 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Preußen Münster the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Preußen Münster and 1. FC Kaiserslautern will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Preußen Münster's attack rating (0.83) and 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Kaiserslautern's attack (0.82x) against Preußen Münster's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from Preußen Münster's last 56 games and 1. FC Kaiserslautern's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Preußen Münster Win
43%
2.34
30%
3.29
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Preußen Münster xG
Total xG
2.52
1.09
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
6%
15.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Preußen Münster and 1. FC Kaiserslautern expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Preußen Münster and 1.09 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Preußen Münster's recent record stands at 13W 20D 23L from 56 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-D in the last five.
1. FC Kaiserslautern, meanwhile, have gone 25W 12D 19L across 56 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Preußen Münster heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Preußen Münster have managed 7W 12D 8L from their last 27 home games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Kaiserslautern's away record stands at 8W 6D 13L across their last 27 away games, a 1.11 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Preußen Münster are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Kaiserslautern are on 1.64 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Preußen Münster have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preußen Münster
Blended
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Blended
Preußen Münster (Home) vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Preußen Münster
Blended
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Blended
❓ Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern Form FAQs
What form are Preußen Münster and 1. FC Kaiserslautern in coming into this match?
Preußen Münster have gone 13W 20D 23L in their last 56 games (1.05 PPG), while 1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 25W 12D 19L in their last 56 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preußen Münster at home or 1. FC Kaiserslautern away?
Preußen Münster's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preußen Münster at home: 1.22 PPG; 1. FC Kaiserslautern away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
1. FC Kaiserslautern have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Kaiserslautern won 1. FC Kaiserslautern 4-1 Preußen Münster on 19 Sep 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Preußen Münster have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against 1. FC Kaiserslautern — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Preußen Münster
0
Draws
4
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Recent Meetings
❓ Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Preußen Münster have won 0, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Preußen Münster and 1. FC Kaiserslautern last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Preußen Münster 2-3 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
Who has won more matches between Preußen Münster and 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Preußen Münster are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
1. FC Kaiserslautern see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preußen Münster 67%, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Preußen Münster) and 56% (1. FC Kaiserslautern).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preußen Münster home games / 1. FC Kaiserslautern away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Preußen Münster vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Preußen Münster and 1. FC Kaiserslautern matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Preußen Münster's recent matches and 41% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Preußen Münster and 1. FC Kaiserslautern matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Preußen Münster's recent games and 56% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preußen Münster and 1. FC Kaiserslautern matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Preußen Münster's recent matches and 56% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Kaiserslautern defy the odds to beat Preußen Münster 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Kaiserslautern beat Preußen Münster 2-3 at Preussenstadion, Regular Season - 23, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.43 xG and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.09 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. 1. FC Kaiserslautern outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.83 / defence 0.98 against 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.82 / defence 1.12, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 43% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 27%, with Preußen Münster to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual 1. FC Kaiserslautern win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 48%, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preußen Münster's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Kaiserslautern arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Kaiserslautern (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More 2. Bundesliga fixtures — matchday 23
All 2. Bundesliga fixtures →
More German football predictions →