Karlsruher SC 3-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Karlsruher SC at 44% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
SpVgg Greuther Fürth travel to BBBank Wildpark to take on Karlsruher SC in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Friday 20 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Karlsruher SC have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Karlsruher SC have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Karlsruher SC 1.30 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Karlsruher SC's games and 60% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's (from Karlsruher SC's last 10 home games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Karlsruher SC: 5 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.9 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2025, ended Karlsruher SC 4–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a Karlsruher SC win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Karlsruher SC and goals — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.9 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Karlsruher SC in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Karlsruher SC 65% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Karlsruher SC 72% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%). Note also that SpVgg Greuther Fürth surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Karlsruher SC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karlsruher SC 1.96 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karlsruher SC attack 1.142 / defence 1.272 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.990 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.325. Karlsruher SC's defence rating of 1.272 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SpVgg Greuther Fürth's projected output up. Data: built from Karlsruher SC's last 60 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 60.
Result probabilities: Karlsruher SC 44% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 32%. Fair-value odds: Karlsruher SC 2.27 | Draw 4.19 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.11. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 71% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% — both xG figures (1.96 / 1.67) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Karlsruher SC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Karlsruher SC 5 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karlsruher SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.63 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Karlsruher SC's last 10 home games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Karlsruher SC 80% (last 10 home games) | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 27 | Venue: BBBank Wildpark • Kick-off: Friday 20 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karlsruher SC 44% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 71% (No 29%) | xG Karlsruher SC 1.96 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Karlsruher SC attack 1.142 / def 1.272 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.990 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Karlsruher SC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Karlsruher SC xG
Expected Goals
1.67
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth FAQs
What time does Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 20 March 2026 at BBBank Wildpark.
What was the final score in Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Karlsruher SC 3 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at BBBank Wildpark.
What competition is Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 27) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Karlsruher SC a 44% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Karlsruher SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Karlsruher SC's attack at 1.14x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus Karlsruher SC's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Karlsruher SC's last 60 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Karlsruher SC Win
44%
2.27
24%
4.19
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Karlsruher SC xG
Total xG
3.63
1.67
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.44
Clean Sheet
19%
5.30
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
8%
12.04
5%
22.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Karlsruher SC and 1.67 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Karlsruher SC come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 17D 20L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, SpVgg Greuther Fürth sit at 1.13 PPG from 60 outings (18W 14D 28L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Karlsruher SC on 1.43 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Karlsruher SC's home form reads 15W 7D 7L across their last 29 home games, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have taken 0.97 points per game from their last 29 away games (8W 4D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karlsruher SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Karlsruher SC are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.40 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karlsruher SC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 60%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karlsruher SC
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Karlsruher SC (Home) vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Karlsruher SC
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Form FAQs
What form are Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Karlsruher SC have gone 23W 17D 20L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 18W 14D 28L in their last 60 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karlsruher SC at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Karlsruher SC's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karlsruher SC at home: 1.79 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 20 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Karlsruher SC have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Mar 2024, when Karlsruher SC won Karlsruher SC 4-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Karlsruher SC's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Karlsruher SC
1
Draws
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Karlsruher SC have won 6, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 March 2026: Karlsruher SC 3-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Karlsruher SC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Karlsruher SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karlsruher SC 66%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Karlsruher SC and 62% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karlsruher SC home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Karlsruher SC's games and 55% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Karlsruher SC's matches and 62% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Karlsruher SC's recent matches and 79% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karlsruher SC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karlsruher SC beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-1 at BBBank Wildpark, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karlsruher SC 1.96 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.67 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Karlsruher SC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karlsruher SC attack 1.14 / defence 1.27 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.99 / defence 1.10, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karlsruher SC 44% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 32%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karlsruher SC 72%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karlsruher SC's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karlsruher SC 1.43 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karlsruher SC win broke the near-deadlock. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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