Hertha BSC 3-2 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg make the trip to Olympiastadion Berlin to face Hertha BSC in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Friday 16 February 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Hertha BSC (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's home record at Olympiastadion Berlin: 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
1. FC Magdeburg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Hertha BSC, 1.40 for 1. FC Magdeburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hertha BSC lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 10.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 4–6 with 1. FC Magdeburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 10.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
1. FC Magdeburg — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 67% and 1. FC Magdeburg 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 66% | 1. FC Magdeburg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.53 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 1.059 / defence 1.011 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.856 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.595 / away 1.367. Data: 21 Hertha BSC games / 55 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 45% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Magdeburg 29%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | 1. FC Magdeburg 3.45. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hertha BSC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 60% | 1. FC Magdeburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Friday 16 Feb 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 45% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Magdeburg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Hertha BSC 1.53 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 1.059 / def 1.011 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.856 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.595 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
1. FC Magdeburg xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 16 February 2024 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Hertha BSC 3 - 2 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 45% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Hertha BSC and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (1 meetings): Hertha BSC 0W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Magdeburg 1W.
What form are Hertha BSC and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 1.06x the league average against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (0.86x) against Hertha BSC's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 21/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
45%
2.21
25%
3.95
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.71
1.18
1. FC Magdeburg xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
6%
15.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.18 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hertha BSC come into this having played 55 games, going 15W 13D 27L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Magdeburg sit at 1.27 PPG from 55 outings (19W 13D 23L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Hertha BSC against 1.27 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Hertha BSC's home form reads 9W 9D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Magdeburg have taken 1.11 points per game from 27 outings (8W 6D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.47 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 62%.
Last 55 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 15W 13D 27L in their last 55 games (1.05 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 19W 13D 23L in their last 55 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.33 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: 1. FC Magdeburg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hertha BSC have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hertha BSC
1
Draws
3
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 2, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when 1. FC Magdeburg 1-0 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and 1. FC Magdeburg?
1. FC Magdeburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 63%, 1. FC Magdeburg 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Hertha BSC) and 59% (1. FC Magdeburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Magdeburg in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Hertha BSC's games and 59% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Hertha BSC's matches and 59% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do Hertha BSC and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hertha BSC edge out 1. FC Magdeburg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat 1. FC Magdeburg 3-2 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.53 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.18 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Hertha BSC beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. 1. FC Magdeburg outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 1.06 / defence 1.01 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.86 / defence 0.91, drawn from 21/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 45% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Magdeburg 29%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 66%, 1. FC Magdeburg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 1.05 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hertha BSC win broke the near-deadlock. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.