Eintracht Braunschweig 1-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Braunschweig at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 23 as Eintracht Braunschweig welcome Hertha BSC to Eintracht-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 February 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Braunschweig at Eintracht-Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hertha BSC — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Eintracht Braunschweig) versus 1.60 (Hertha BSC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Eintracht Braunschweig register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Hertha BSC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Eintracht Braunschweig, 1 for Hertha BSC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 0–3 with Hertha BSC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Braunschweig 57% and Hertha BSC 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 55% | Hertha BSC 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.66 xG and Hertha BSC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.887 / defence 0.870 | Hertha BSC attack 0.983 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.402. Data: 56 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 22 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 48% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 28%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Hertha BSC 3.57. Eintracht Braunschweig hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Braunschweig as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Braunschweig offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Braunschweig 60% | Hertha BSC 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 48% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.66 / Hertha BSC 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.887 / def 0.870 | Hertha BSC attack 0.983 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Braunschweig (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Hertha BSC xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC?
Eintracht Braunschweig 1 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 48% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Braunschweig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC?
Record (1 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 0W | Draws 0 | Hertha BSC 1W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating (0.89) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Braunschweig Win
48%
2.08
24%
4.12
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.86
1.20
Hertha BSC xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
15%
6.90
5%
18.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.4 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.20 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Braunschweig come into this having played 56 games, going 16W 11D 29L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 1.09 PPG from 56 outings (16W 13D 27L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.05 PPG, Hertha BSC on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Eintracht Braunschweig's home form reads 12W 5D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Eintracht Braunschweig are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 0.79 points per game from 28 outings (6W 4D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Braunschweig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.50 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC in 68%.
Last 56 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 16W 11D 29L in their last 56 games (1.05 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 16W 13D 27L in their last 56 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or Hertha BSC away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.46 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2025, when Hertha BSC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Braunschweig's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Eintracht Braunschweig
2
Draws
4
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 0, Hertha BSC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Eintracht Braunschweig 1-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 54%, Hertha BSC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Eintracht Braunschweig and 71% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Eintracht Braunschweig's games and 71% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Eintracht Braunschweig's matches and 71% of Hertha BSC's.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 23, as Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.66 xG and Hertha BSC 1.20 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.89 / defence 0.87 against Hertha BSC attack 0.98 / defence 1.16, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 48% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 28%, with Eintracht Braunschweig to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 55%, Hertha BSC 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Braunschweig 1.05 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.