Hannover 96 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hannover 96 at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth meet at Heinz von Heiden-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Friday 16 February 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hannover 96 have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hannover 96, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hannover 96 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Hannover 96 are significantly better at Heinz von Heiden-Arena than their overall form suggests.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Hannover 96, 2.00 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Hannover 96, 0 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 3–1 with Hannover 96 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hannover 96 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hannover 96 64% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hannover 96 64% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 1.80 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 1.219 / defence 0.881 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.958 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.595 / away 1.367. Data: 55 Hannover 96 games / 55 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hannover 96 52% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.17. Hannover 96 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hannover 96 at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hannover 96 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Hannover 96 50% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Heinz von Heiden-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 16 Feb 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hannover 96 52% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Hannover 96 1.80 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Hannover 96 attack 1.219 / def 0.881 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.958 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.595 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Hannover 96 xG
Expected Goals
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 16 February 2024 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What was the final score in Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Hannover 96 2 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What competition is Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Hannover 96 a 52% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (3 meetings): Hannover 96 2W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W.
What form are Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
Hannover 96 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hannover 96's attack at 1.22x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.96x) against Hannover 96's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
52%
1.91
23%
4.32
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Hannover 96 xG
Total xG
2.95
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
4%
24.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.8 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 1.15 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hannover 96's recent record stands at 21W 15D 19L from 55 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Hannover 96 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth, meanwhile, have gone 20W 16D 19L across 55 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Hannover 96 against 1.38 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hannover 96 have managed 14W 6D 7L from 27 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record stands at 5W 7D 15L across 27 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hannover 96 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hannover 96 are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.45 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hannover 96 have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 62%.
Last 55 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hannover 96
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Hannover 96 have gone 21W 15D 19L in their last 55 games (1.42 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 20W 16D 19L in their last 55 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hannover 96 at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Hannover 96's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hannover 96 at home: 1.78 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hannover 96 have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Hannover 96
3
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 8 meetings on record, Hannover 96 have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Hannover 96 1-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hannover 96 59%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Hannover 96 and 56% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hannover 96 home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hannover 96 play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Hannover 96's games and 67% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Hannover 96's matches and 56% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
Hannover 96 have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hannover 96 edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hannover 96 beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.80 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.15 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 1.22 / defence 0.88 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.96 / defence 0.93, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 52% | Draw 23% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 64%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hannover 96's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hannover 96 1.42 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hannover 96 win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.