Fortuna Düsseldorf 5-3 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Schalke 04 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Schalke 04 make the trip to Düsseldorf Arena to face Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 November 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 5W 3D 2L at Düsseldorf Arena — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Schalke 04's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Schalke 04's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Fortuna Düsseldorf's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of FC Schalke 04's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Fortuna Düsseldorf register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, FC Schalke 04 in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fortuna Düsseldorf lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Fortuna Düsseldorf goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FC Schalke 04 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 57% versus FC Schalke 04 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% | FC Schalke 04 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.16 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.000 / defence 1.166 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.831 / defence 1.328. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.402. FC Schalke 04 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.328 — this is suppressing Fortuna Düsseldorf's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 13 FC Schalke 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 55% | Draw 23% | FC Schalke 04 23%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | FC Schalke 04 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Düsseldorf (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.16 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.52 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 80% | FC Schalke 04 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Düsseldorf Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 55% | Draw 23% | FC Schalke 04 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.16 / FC Schalke 04 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.000 / def 1.166 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.831 / def 1.328 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.36
FC Schalke 04 xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Düsseldorf Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Schalke 04?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 5 - 3 FC Schalke 04.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Düsseldorf Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 55% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC Schalke 04?
Record (2 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W | Draws 0 | FC Schalke 04 1W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC Schalke 04 in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack rating (1.00) and FC Schalke 04's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Schalke 04's attack (0.83x) against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 47/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
55%
1.82
23%
4.44
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
3.52
1.36
FC Schalke 04 xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
11%
8.70
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
3%
38.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.36 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Schalke 04?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fortuna Düsseldorf come into this having played 47 games, going 23W 10D 14L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Schalke 04 sit at 0.94 PPG from 47 outings (11W 11D 25L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Düsseldorf carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of FC Schalke 04 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home form reads 14W 6D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Schalke 04 have taken 0.62 points per game from 24 outings (3W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.17 scored and 2.11 conceded.
Last 47 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
FC Schalke 04
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 23W 10D 14L in their last 47 games (1.68 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 11W 11D 25L in their last 47 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Schalke 04 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Schalke 04 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2
Draws
3
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC Schalke 04?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 3, FC Schalke 04 have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when FC Schalke 04 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 71%, FC Schalke 04 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 58% for FC Schalke 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Schalke 04 in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play FC Schalke 04?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 50% of FC Schalke 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 58% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over FC Schalke 04.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat FC Schalke 04 5-3 at Düsseldorf Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.16 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.36 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Schalke 04 outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.00 / defence 1.17 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.83 / defence 1.33, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 55% | Draw 23% | FC Schalke 04 23%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%, FC Schalke 04 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.