Hannover 96 1-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hannover 96 at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth meet at Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 12:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Hannover 96 have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hannover 96 at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Hannover 96's favour (1.80 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Hannover 96, 1 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2025, ended Hannover 96 2–2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Hannover 96 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hannover 96 57% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hannover 96 57% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%). Note also that SpVgg Greuther Fürth surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Hannover 96 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 64% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 1.71 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 0.950 / defence 0.873 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.920 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.332. Data: built from Hannover 96's last 58 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 58.
Result probabilities: Hannover 96 51% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 23%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 1.96 | Draw 3.78 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.44. Hannover 96 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hannover 96 at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hannover 96 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Hannover 96's last 10 home games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hannover 96 50% (last 10 home games) | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 25 | Venue: Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 March 2026 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hannover 96 51% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Hannover 96 1.71 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Hannover 96 attack 0.950 / def 0.873 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.920 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Hannover 96 xG
Expected Goals
1.07
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth FAQs
What time does Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena.
What was the final score in Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Hannover 96 1 - 2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena.
What competition is Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 25) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Hannover 96 a 51% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hannover 96's attack at 0.95x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.92x) against Hannover 96's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from Hannover 96's last 58 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.78
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Hannover 96 xG
Total xG
2.77
1.07
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
4%
24.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 1.07 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hannover 96's recent record stands at 26W 18D 14L from 58 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth, meanwhile, have gone 16W 14D 28L across 58 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hannover 96 by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SpVgg Greuther Fürth heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hannover 96 have managed 14W 9D 5L from their last 28 home games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record stands at 7W 4D 17L across their last 28 away games, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hannover 96 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hannover 96 are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.38 scored and 1.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 60%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hannover 96
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Hannover 96 (Home) vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hannover 96
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Form FAQs
What form are Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Hannover 96 have gone 26W 18D 14L in their last 58 games (1.66 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 16W 14D 28L in their last 58 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hannover 96 at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Hannover 96's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hannover 96 at home: 1.82 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Hannover 96 or SpVgg Greuther Fürth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hannover 96 have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth, the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 8 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hannover 96 have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Hannover 96
3
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Hannover 96 have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2026: Hannover 96 1-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hannover 96 see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hannover 96 54%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hannover 96) and 61% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hannover 96 home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hannover 96 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Hannover 96's recent matches and 54% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Hannover 96's matches and 61% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Hannover 96 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Hannover 96's recent matches and 79% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SpVgg Greuther Fürth defy the odds to beat Hannover 96 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Hannover 96 1-2 at Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.71 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.07 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 0.95 / defence 0.87 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.92 / defence 1.19, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 51% | Draw 26% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 23%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 57%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hannover 96's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hannover 96 arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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