SV Wehen 1-3 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Wehen at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SV Wehen host Eintracht Braunschweig at BRITA-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 8 December 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SV Wehen — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SV Wehen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SV Wehen have posted 4W 3D 1L at BRITA-Arena — 1.88 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.88 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — SV Wehen are significantly better at BRITA-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Eintracht Braunschweig have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Braunschweig away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
SV Wehen are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
SV Wehen in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Wehen 53% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Wehen 41% | Eintracht Braunschweig 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Wehen 1.28 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Wehen attack 0.681 / defence 0.890 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.626 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.715 / away 1.430. SV Wehen's attack strength of 0.681 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 SV Wehen games / 49 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Wehen 48% | Draw 29% | Eintracht Braunschweig 23%. Fair-value odds: SV Wehen 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Eintracht Braunschweig 4.35. SV Wehen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Wehen are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Wehen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SV Wehen 50% | Eintracht Braunschweig 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: BRITA-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 8 Dec 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Wehen 48% | Draw 29% | Eintracht Braunschweig 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG SV Wehen 1.28 / Eintracht Braunschweig 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: SV Wehen attack 0.681 / def 0.890 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.626 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.715 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: SV Wehen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
SV Wehen xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 8 December 2023 at BRITA-Arena.
What was the final score in SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
SV Wehen 1 - 3 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at BRITA-Arena.
What competition is SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives SV Wehen a 48% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SV Wehen the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both SV Wehen and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and Eintracht Braunschweig?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Wehen and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
SV Wehen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SV Wehen's attack at 0.68x the league average against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Braunschweig's attack versus SV Wehen's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.4%), 0-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Wehen Win
48%
2.10
29%
3.39
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
SV Wehen xG
Total xG
2.08
0.80
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
6%
15.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are SV Wehen and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for SV Wehen and 0.80 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SV Wehen come into this having played 17 games, going 8W 3D 6L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for SV Wehen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Eintracht Braunschweig sit at 0.47 PPG from 17 outings (2W 2D 13L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Wehen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of Eintracht Braunschweig — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SV Wehen's home form reads 4W 3D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Eintracht Braunschweig have taken 0.00 points per game from 8 outings (0W 0D 8L). That's a step down from their 0.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eintracht Braunschweig's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Wehen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SV Wehen are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 0.76 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 17 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Wehen
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Wehen and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
SV Wehen have gone 8W 3D 6L in their last 17 games (1.59 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 2W 2D 13L in their last 17 (0.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Wehen at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
SV Wehen's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Wehen at home: 1.88 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Wehen and Eintracht Braunschweig runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Wehen
0
Draws
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Wehen have won 0, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Wehen and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 SV Wehen.
Who has won more matches between SV Wehen and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Eintracht Braunschweig have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Wehen 50%, Eintracht Braunschweig 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (SV Wehen) and 62% (Eintracht Braunschweig).
On the defensive side: SV Wehen keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Eintracht Braunschweig in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Wehen home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Wehen play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SV Wehen's recent matches and 38% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of SV Wehen's recent games and 62% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Wehen and Eintracht Braunschweig tend to score early?
SV Wehen have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Braunschweig cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over SV Wehen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Braunschweig beat SV Wehen 1-3 at BRITA-Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Wehen 1.28 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 0.80 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Eintracht Braunschweig outscored their 0.80 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Wehen attack 0.68 / defence 0.89 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.63 / defence 1.10, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Wehen 48% | Draw 29% | Eintracht Braunschweig 23%, with SV Wehen to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Eintracht Braunschweig win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Wehen 41%, Eintracht Braunschweig 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Wehen's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Wehen arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.47. Form was overturned, with Eintracht Braunschweig winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SV Wehen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.