1. FC Nürnberg 0-1 Karlsruher SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Karlsruher SC (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as 1. FC Nürnberg face Karlsruher SC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Max-Morlock-Stadion plays host to 1. FC Nürnberg versus Karlsruher SC in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Nürnberg have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Max-Morlock-Stadion, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Karlsruher SC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Karlsruher SC have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Karlsruher SC are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for 1. FC Nürnberg, 3 for Karlsruher SC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 1–4 with Karlsruher SC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
1. FC Nürnberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Karlsruher SC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 45% versus Karlsruher SC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 52% | Karlsruher SC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.01 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.760 / defence 1.240 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.972 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.377. 1. FC Nürnberg's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 1. FC Nürnberg games / 64 Karlsruher SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 22% | Draw 27% | Karlsruher SC 52%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Karlsruher SC 1.92. Karlsruher SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Karlsruher SC at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karlsruher SC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Nürnberg 40% | Karlsruher SC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 22% | Draw 27% | Karlsruher SC 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.01 / Karlsruher SC 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.760 / def 1.240 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.972 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Karlsruher SC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Karlsruher SC xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC?
1. FC Nürnberg 0 - 1 Karlsruher SC.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 22% chance of winning, Karlsruher SC a 52% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Karlsruher SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Karlsruher SC will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Karlsruher SC?
Record (5 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 1W | Draws 1 | Karlsruher SC 3W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Karlsruher SC in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Karlsruher SC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1. FC Nürnberg's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Karlsruher SC's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Karlsruher SC's attack (0.97x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karlsruher SC Win
22%
4.57
27%
3.77
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.67
1.66
Karlsruher SC xG
4.57
22%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
19%
5.25
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
4%
24.02
19%
5.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Karlsruher SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.66 for Karlsruher SC, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Nürnberg's recent record stands at 20W 16D 28L from 64 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Karlsruher SC, meanwhile, have gone 25W 17D 22L across 64 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.44 for Karlsruher SC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, 1. FC Nürnberg have managed 11W 8D 12L from 31 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Karlsruher SC's away record stands at 7W 9D 15L across 31 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Karlsruher SC's season.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Karlsruher SC are on 1.83 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karlsruher SC in 61%.
Last 64 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Current Season
Karlsruher SC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Karlsruher SC in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 20W 16D 28L in their last 64 games (1.19 PPG), while Karlsruher SC have gone 25W 17D 22L in their last 64 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or Karlsruher SC away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.32 PPG; Karlsruher SC away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Nürnberg won 5-1 on 13 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Karlsruher SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
1. FC Nürnberg
1
Draws
6
Karlsruher SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Karlsruher SC?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, Karlsruher SC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Karlsruher SC last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when 1. FC Nürnberg 5-1 Karlsruher SC.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and Karlsruher SC?
Karlsruher SC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Karlsruher SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 42%, Karlsruher SC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 55% (Karlsruher SC).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 36% of games; Karlsruher SC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Karlsruher SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play Karlsruher SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 61% of Karlsruher SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Karlsruher SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 55% of Karlsruher SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and Karlsruher SC tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Karlsruher SC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Karlsruher SC edge out 1. FC Nürnberg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karlsruher SC beat 1. FC Nürnberg 0-1 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.01 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.66 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Nürnberg fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.76 / defence 1.24 against Karlsruher SC attack 0.97 / defence 0.90, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 22% | Draw 27% | Karlsruher SC 52%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 52%, Karlsruher SC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Karlsruher SC's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.19 PPG, Karlsruher SC 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karlsruher SC win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.