Holstein Kiel 3-4 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Holstein Kiel host FC St. Pauli at Holstein-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 23 February 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Holstein Kiel — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Holstein Kiel's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Holstein-Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Holstein-Stadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC St. Pauli stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Holstein Kiel at 2.20 PPG versus FC St. Pauli's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Holstein Kiel, 3 for FC St. Pauli and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 1–5 with FC St. Pauli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Holstein Kiel in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Holstein Kiel 70% and FC St. Pauli 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 68% | FC St. Pauli 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.37 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 1.027 / defence 1.055 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.015 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.370. Data: 56 Holstein Kiel games / 56 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 35% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 40%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | FC St. Pauli 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC St. Pauli as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Holstein Kiel 70% | FC St. Pauli 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 23 Feb 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 35% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.37 / FC St. Pauli 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 1.027 / def 1.055 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.015 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.47
FC St. Pauli xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 23 February 2024 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
Holstein Kiel 3 - 4 FC St. Pauli.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 35% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli?
Record (5 meetings): Holstein Kiel 1W | Draws 1 | FC St. Pauli 3W.
What form are Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Holstein Kiel's attack at 1.03x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
35%
2.83
25%
3.99
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
2.84
1.47
FC St. Pauli xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
8%
12.25
10%
9.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.47 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Holstein Kiel's recent record stands at 25W 13D 18L from 56 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli, meanwhile, have gone 28W 19D 9L across 56 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Holstein Kiel on 1.57 PPG, FC St. Pauli on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Holstein Kiel have managed 12W 4D 11L from 27 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC St. Pauli's away record stands at 12W 7D 8L across 27 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.68 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 25W 13D 18L in their last 56 games (1.57 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 28W 19D 9L in their last 56 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or FC St. Pauli away?
FC St. Pauli's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.48 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Holstein Kiel or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC St. Pauli go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2023, when FC St. Pauli won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Holstein Kiel's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
6
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli?
From 8 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 1, FC St. Pauli have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Holstein Kiel 1-2 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Holstein Kiel at 78%, FC St. Pauli at 59%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Holstein Kiel and 59% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Holstein Kiel's games and 59% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 59% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC St. Pauli edge out Holstein Kiel 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat Holstein Kiel 3-4 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.37 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.47 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Holstein Kiel beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC St. Pauli outscored their 1.47 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 1.03 / defence 1.05 against FC St. Pauli attack 1.01 / defence 0.84, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 35% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 40%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 68%, FC St. Pauli 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.57 PPG, FC St. Pauli 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.