1. FC Nürnberg 2-1 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 40%, yet in-form Eintracht Braunschweig provide a compelling counter-argument — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg host Eintracht Braunschweig at Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Nürnberg stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg's home record at Max-Morlock-Stadion: 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — 1. FC Nürnberg are significantly better at Max-Morlock-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Eintracht Braunschweig — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Eintracht Braunschweig — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 1, Eintracht Braunschweig 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
1. FC Nürnberg trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Eintracht Braunschweig trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 47% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 53% | Eintracht Braunschweig 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.28 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.871 / defence 1.126 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.735 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.367. Data: 57 1. FC Nürnberg games / 57 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 40% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Braunschweig 33%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Eintracht Braunschweig 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Eintracht Braunschweig (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 60% | Eintracht Braunschweig 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 40% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Braunschweig 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.28 / Eintracht Braunschweig 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.871 / def 1.126 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.735 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
1. FC Nürnberg 2 - 1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 40% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 1W | Draws 1 | Eintracht Braunschweig 1W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Nürnberg's attack at 0.87x the league average against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Braunschweig's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
40%
2.50
27%
3.64
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.41
1.13
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
9%
11.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.1 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.13 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Nürnberg come into this having played 57 games, going 18W 15D 24L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-L. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Eintracht Braunschweig sit at 1.05 PPG from 57 outings (16W 12D 29L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.21 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Nürnberg's home form reads 11W 8D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Eintracht Braunschweig have taken 0.64 points per game from 28 outings (4W 6D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eintracht Braunschweig's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.12 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 57 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 18W 15D 24L in their last 57 games (1.21 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 16W 12D 29L in their last 57 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.46 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2025, when 1. FC Nürnberg won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Nürnberg's record when hosting Eintracht Braunschweig specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
1. FC Nürnberg
2
Draws
1
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 5, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Eintracht Braunschweig 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 43%, Eintracht Braunschweig 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 61% (Eintracht Braunschweig).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 29% of games; Eintracht Braunschweig in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 61% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 61% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and Eintracht Braunschweig tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Nürnberg edge out Eintracht Braunschweig 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat Eintracht Braunschweig 2-1 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.28 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.13 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.87 / defence 1.13 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.73 / defence 0.92, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 40% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Braunschweig 33%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 53%, Eintracht Braunschweig 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.21 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.