1. FC Nürnberg 0-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 55% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg welcome Fortuna Düsseldorf to Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 7 March 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, 1. FC Nürnberg stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — 1. FC Nürnberg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Fortuna Düsseldorf have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.20 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of 1. FC Nürnberg's games and 60% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's (from 1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 home games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
1. FC Nürnberg hold a clear advantage across the 9 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 2 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 1. FC Nürnberg 3–2 Fortuna Düsseldorf — a 1. FC Nürnberg win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both 1. FC Nürnberg and goals — 5 wins from 9 H2H matches and an average of 3.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Nürnberg in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play tendencies (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Nürnberg 66% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 66% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: 1. FC Nürnberg surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Fortuna Düsseldorf have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Fortuna Düsseldorf surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while 1. FC Nürnberg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.86 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.239 / defence 0.962 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.827 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.337. Data: built from 1. FC Nürnberg's last 58 games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 58.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 55% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 20%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.83 | Draw 3.97 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 4.98. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Nürnberg (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Nürnberg are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (1. FC Nürnberg 5 wins from 9 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 home games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Nürnberg 80% (last 10 home games) | Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 25 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 55% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.86 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.239 / def 0.962 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.827 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf FAQs
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
1. FC Nürnberg 0 - 1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 25) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 55% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Nürnberg's attack rating (1.24) and Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Nürnberg's last 58 games and Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
55%
1.83
25%
3.97
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.93
1.06
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
16%
6.45
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
3%
32.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.06 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Nürnberg's recent record stands at 22W 12D 24L from 58 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Fortuna Düsseldorf, meanwhile, have gone 22W 15D 21L across 58 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.34 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, 1. FC Nürnberg have managed 13W 6D 9L from their last 28 home games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record stands at 10W 7D 11L across their last 28 away games, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.38 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Nürnberg have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 62%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg (Home) vs Fortuna Düsseldorf (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 22W 12D 24L in their last 58 games (1.34 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 22W 15D 21L in their last 58 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.61 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Dec 2023, when Fortuna Düsseldorf won 1. FC Nürnberg 0-5 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
1. FC Nürnberg's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
1. FC Nürnberg
2
Draws
3
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 5, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: 1. FC Nürnberg 0-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 57%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for 1. FC Nürnberg and 57% for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs Fortuna Düsseldorf Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of 1. FC Nürnberg's games and 71% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 57% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and Fortuna Düsseldorf matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 75% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortuna Düsseldorf defy the odds to beat 1. FC Nürnberg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat 1. FC Nürnberg 0-1 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.86 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.06 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Nürnberg fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.24 / defence 0.96 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.83 / defence 0.98, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 55% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 20%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Fortuna Düsseldorf win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 66%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.34 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Düsseldorf win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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