Sochaux 2-2 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sochaux at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sochaux vs Quevilly encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Quevilly make the trip to Stade Auguste-Bonal to face Sochaux in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sochaux's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Sochaux have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Quevilly (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Sochaux. A 0.90 PPG lead over Quevilly (2.20 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sochaux lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Sochaux winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sochaux goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Quevilly goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sochaux 46% versus Quevilly 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sochaux 40% | Quevilly 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.47 xG and Quevilly 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 1.256 / defence 0.840 | Quevilly attack 0.665 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.113. Sochaux carry an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — their λ of 1.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 Sochaux games / 50 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 58% | Draw 26% | Quevilly 16%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Quevilly 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Sochaux (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sochaux are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sochaux 60% | Quevilly 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 58% | Draw 26% | Quevilly 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 36% | xG Sochaux 1.47 / Quevilly 0.62 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 1.256 / def 0.840 | Quevilly attack 0.665 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
0.62
Quevilly xG
36%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Quevilly kick off?
Sochaux vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs Quevilly?
Sochaux 2 - 2 Quevilly.
Where is Sochaux vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Quevilly part of?
Sochaux vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 58% chance of winning, Quevilly a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Sochaux and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Quevilly?
Record (2 meetings): Sochaux 1W | Draws 1 | Quevilly 0W.
What form are Sochaux and Quevilly in?
Sochaux (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Quevilly (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sochaux's attack at 1.26x the league average against Quevilly's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (0.67x) against Sochaux's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.62.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 2-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
58%
1.73
26%
3.79
16%
6.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Sochaux xG
Total xG
2.10
0.62
Quevilly xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
6.39
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
54%
1.86
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
31%
3.22
4%
27.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 7.6 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 11.3 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Sochaux and 0.62 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Quevilly?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sochaux's recent record stands at 27W 14D 11L from 52 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Quevilly, meanwhile, have gone 15W 15D 22L across 52 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sochaux by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Quevilly heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sochaux have managed 14W 7D 4L from 25 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Quevilly's away record stands at 7W 4D 14L across 25 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sochaux are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 0.98 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 27W 14D 11L in their last 52 games (1.83 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 15W 15D 22L in their last 52 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Quevilly away?
Sochaux's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 1.96 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Quevilly in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sochaux have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Quevilly — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sochaux
3
Draws
0
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Quevilly?
From 4 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 1, Quevilly have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Quevilly 0-0 Sochaux.
Who has won more matches between Sochaux and Quevilly?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sochaux 44%, Quevilly 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Sochaux) and 44% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Quevilly in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Sochaux's recent matches and 32% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Sochaux's recent games and 44% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Quevilly tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sochaux and Quevilly share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 13, as Sochaux and Quevilly drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 1.47 xG and Quevilly 0.62 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Quevilly outscored their 0.62 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 1.26 / defence 0.84 against Quevilly attack 0.67 / defence 0.98, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 58% | Draw 26% | Quevilly 16%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 40%, Quevilly 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Quevilly's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sochaux (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.