Bordeaux 1-0 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bordeaux at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bordeaux vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Matmut-Atlantique plays host to Bordeaux versus Annecy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 22 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bordeaux's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bordeaux's home record at Stade Matmut-Atlantique: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Matmut-Atlantique. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Annecy (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Annecy have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Bordeaux's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Annecy's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Bordeaux have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Annecy in only 17%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading Data
Bordeaux goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 58% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Bordeaux 33% | Annecy 17%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bordeaux 42% | Annecy 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.17 xG and Annecy 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.057 / defence 0.806 | Annecy attack 1.077 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.113. Data: 12 Bordeaux games / 12 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 40% | Draw 30% | Annecy 30%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Annecy 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bordeaux as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bordeaux if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bordeaux 30% | Annecy 17% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 40% | Draw 30% | Annecy 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Bordeaux 1.17 / Annecy 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.057 / def 0.806 | Annecy attack 1.077 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Annecy xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Annecy kick off?
Bordeaux vs Annecy kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Annecy?
Bordeaux 1 - 0 Annecy.
Where is Bordeaux vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Annecy part of?
Bordeaux vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 40% chance of winning, Annecy a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bordeaux and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Annecy?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bordeaux and Annecy in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Annecy (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bordeaux's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (1.08x) against Bordeaux's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
40%
2.48
30%
3.39
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.13
0.96
Annecy xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
9%
10.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Bordeaux and 0.96 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bordeaux come into this having played 12 games, going 7W 3D 2L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.00 PPG from 12 outings (3W 3D 6L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bordeaux carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Annecy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Bordeaux's home form reads 4W 1D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 1.33 points per game from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bordeaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bordeaux are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 0.83 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Annecy in 17%.
Defensively: Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Annecy in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Annecy in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 7W 3D 2L in their last 12 games (2.00 PPG), while Annecy have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Annecy away?
Bordeaux's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 2.17 PPG; Annecy away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Bordeaux or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Annecy in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bordeaux have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bordeaux
0
Draws
2
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Annecy?
From 4 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 2, Annecy have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Annecy 3-1 Bordeaux.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Annecy see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 17% (Bordeaux) and 17% (Annecy) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Bordeaux and 33% for Annecy.
On the defensive side: Bordeaux keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Annecy in 50%; Bordeaux have failed to score in 33% of games; Annecy in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 17% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bordeaux vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bordeaux's recent games and 33% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Annecy tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Annecy in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bordeaux edge out Annecy 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat Annecy 1-0 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.17 xG and Annecy 0.96 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Annecy landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.06 / defence 0.81 against Annecy attack 1.08 / defence 0.93, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 40% | Draw 30% | Annecy 30%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 42%, Annecy 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Annecy's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bordeaux arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.