Saint Etienne 2-0 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Geoffroy-Guichard plays host to Saint Etienne versus Dijon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 11 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Saint Etienne (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Dijon's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dijon have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Saint Etienne's favour (1.30 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Saint Etienne, 1 for Dijon and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 1–2 with Dijon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Dijon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 65% versus Dijon 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 57% | Dijon 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.47 xG and Dijon 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.088 / defence 1.390 | Dijon attack 0.802 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.071. Data: 22 Saint Etienne games / 60 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 43% | Draw 26% | Dijon 31%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Dijon 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Saint Etienne 40% | Dijon 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 43% | Draw 26% | Dijon 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Saint Etienne 1.47 / Dijon 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.088 / def 1.390 | Dijon attack 0.802 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Dijon xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Dijon kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Dijon kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Dijon?
Saint Etienne 2 - 0 Dijon.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Dijon part of?
Saint Etienne vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 43% chance of winning, Dijon a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Saint Etienne and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Dijon?
Record (1 meetings): Saint Etienne 0W | Draws 0 | Dijon 1W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Dijon in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Dijon (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Saint Etienne's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Dijon's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Dijon's attack (0.80x) against Saint Etienne's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 22/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
43%
2.30
26%
3.88
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.66
1.19
Dijon xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
7%
14.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.19 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Saint Etienne come into this having played 60 games, going 13W 17D 30L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dijon sit at 1.13 PPG from 60 outings (18W 14D 28L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.13 for Dijon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Saint Etienne's home form reads 8W 8D 13L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Dijon have taken 0.86 points per game from 29 outings (6W 7D 16L).
Attack vs Defence
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.15 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Dijon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Dijon in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 13W 17D 30L in their last 60 games (0.93 PPG), while Dijon have gone 18W 14D 28L in their last 60 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Dijon away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.10 PPG; Dijon away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
1
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Dijon?
From 2 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 1, Dijon have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Saint Etienne 2-0 Dijon.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 66%, Dijon 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Saint Etienne and 59% for Dijon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dijon in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Dijon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Saint Etienne's games and 59% of Dijon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Saint Etienne's matches and 59% of Dijon's.
Do Saint Etienne and Dijon tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Dijon in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Saint Etienne cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dijon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Dijon 2-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.47 xG and Dijon 1.19 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dijon landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.09 / defence 1.39 against Dijon attack 0.80 / defence 1.16, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 43% | Draw 26% | Dijon 31%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 57%, Dijon 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Dijon's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 0.93 PPG, Dijon 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. Dijon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.