Rodez 1-1 Nimes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nimes at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Nimes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Rodez welcome Nimes to Stade Paul Lignon. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rodez — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez at Stade Paul Lignon this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nimes stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nimes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nimes's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rodez at 0.80 PPG versus Nimes's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Rodez, 2 for Nimes and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Nimes winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Rodez in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Nimes in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 40% versus Nimes 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 28% | Nimes 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.18 xG and Nimes 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.832 / defence 1.156 | Nimes attack 0.988 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.061. Nimes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Rodez's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Rodez games / 60 Nimes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 35% | Draw 28% | Nimes 37%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Nimes 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nimes at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nimes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Rodez 70% | Nimes 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 35% | Draw 28% | Nimes 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Rodez 1.18 / Nimes 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.832 / def 1.156 | Nimes attack 0.988 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Nimes (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Nimes xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Nimes kick off?
Rodez vs Nimes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Nimes?
Rodez 1 - 1 Nimes.
Where is Rodez vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Nimes part of?
Rodez vs Nimes is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 35% chance of winning, Nimes a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nimes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Rodez and Nimes will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Nimes?
Record (3 meetings): Rodez 1W | Draws 0 | Nimes 2W.
What form are Rodez and Nimes in?
Rodez (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Nimes (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rodez's attack rating (0.83) and Nimes's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nimes's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nimes Win
35%
2.84
28%
3.60
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.39
1.21
Nimes xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
11%
8.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Rodez and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Rodez and 1.21 for Nimes, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Nimes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 14W 21D 25L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nimes's form line: 20W 11D 29L from 60 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Nimes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rodez on 1.05 PPG, Nimes on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rodez have posted 1.03 PPG from 30 outings (6W 13D 11L).
On the road, Nimes have gone 9W 6D 15L from 30 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Rodez are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 1.10 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Nimes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Nimes in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 14W 21D 25L in their last 60 games (1.05 PPG), while Nimes have gone 20W 11D 29L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Nimes away?
Nimes's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.03 PPG; Nimes away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Rodez or Nimes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Nimes in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rodez's record when hosting Nimes specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Rodez
1
Draws
2
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Nimes?
From 4 meetings on record, Rodez have won 1, Nimes have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Nimes last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when Rodez 1-1 Nimes.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Nimes?
Nimes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 47%, Nimes 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Rodez) and 57% (Nimes).
On the defensive side: Rodez have failed to score in 37% of games; Nimes in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Nimes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Rodez's recent matches and 53% of Nimes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Nimes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Rodez's recent games and 57% of Nimes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Nimes tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Nimes in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez and Nimes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 23, as Rodez and Nimes drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.18 xG and Nimes 1.21 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.83 / defence 1.16 against Nimes attack 0.99 / defence 1.21, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 35% | Draw 28% | Nimes 37%, with Nimes to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 28%, Nimes 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Nimes's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.05 PPG, Nimes 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.