Saint Etienne 0-2 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Saint Etienne and Rodez meet at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Saint Etienne's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rodez have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Rodez have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Saint Etienne, 1.00 for Rodez — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Rodez half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 67% versus Rodez 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 60% | Rodez 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.25 xG and Rodez 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.104 / defence 1.381 | Rodez attack 0.918 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.044. Data: 14 Saint Etienne games / 52 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 35% | Draw 27% | Rodez 38%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Rodez 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Saint Etienne 60% | Rodez 30%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 35% | Draw 27% | Rodez 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Saint Etienne 1.25 / Rodez 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.104 / def 1.381 | Rodez attack 0.918 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.192 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Rodez (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Rodez xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Rodez kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Rodez kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
Saint Etienne 0 - 2 Rodez.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Rodez part of?
Saint Etienne vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 35% chance of winning, Rodez a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Saint Etienne and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Rodez?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Saint Etienne and Rodez in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Rodez (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 1.10x the league average against Rodez's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (0.92x) against Saint Etienne's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 14/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
35%
2.85
27%
3.77
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.58
1.32
Rodez xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
9%
10.69
11%
9.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.1 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.32 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 10W 16D 26L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rodez's form line: 12W 19D 21L from 52 games, 1.06 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.06 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 1.04 PPG from 25 outings (6W 8D 11L).
On the road, Rodez have gone 7W 7D 11L from 25 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 0.83 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Rodez in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 10W 16D 26L in their last 52 games (0.88 PPG), while Rodez have gone 12W 19D 21L in their last 52 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Rodez away?
Rodez's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.04 PPG; Rodez away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Rodez in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won 4-0 on 16 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Saint Etienne
3
Draws
3
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Rodez?
From 8 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 2, Rodez have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Saint Etienne 0-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 68%, Rodez 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Saint Etienne) and 28% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Rodez in 36%; Rodez in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 32% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 28% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Rodez tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Rodez in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Saint Etienne 0-2 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.25 xG and Rodez 1.32 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Saint Etienne fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.10 / defence 1.38 against Rodez attack 0.92 / defence 0.95, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 35% | Draw 27% | Rodez 38%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 60%, Rodez 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Rodez's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 0.88 PPG, Rodez 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.