Annecy 2-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Saint Etienne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Saint Etienne travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Monday 26 December 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Parc des Sports, Annecy have gone 2W 1D 4L this season (7 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Saint Etienne have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Annecy 1.40 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Annecy in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Saint Etienne in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 20% versus Saint Etienne 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 27% | Saint Etienne 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.12 xG and Saint Etienne 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.753 / defence 1.158 | Saint Etienne attack 1.055 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.053. Annecy's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing Annecy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Annecy games / 15 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 32% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 40%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Saint Etienne 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Annecy 29% | Saint Etienne 90%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 32% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Annecy 1.12 / Saint Etienne 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.753 / def 1.158 | Saint Etienne attack 1.055 / def 1.331 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Saint Etienne xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Annecy vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Saint Etienne?
Annecy 2 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Annecy vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Saint Etienne part of?
Annecy vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 32% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Annecy and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Saint Etienne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Annecy and Saint Etienne in?
Annecy (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.75) and Saint Etienne's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
32%
3.09
27%
3.64
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.41
1.29
Saint Etienne xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
9%
11.20
13%
7.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Annecy and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Annecy and 1.29 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Annecy come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 4D 7L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Saint Etienne sit at 0.93 PPG from 15 outings (3W 5D 7L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.07 PPG, Saint Etienne on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Annecy's home form reads 2W 1D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Saint Etienne have taken 0.86 points per game from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Annecy are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.47 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Annecy have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Saint Etienne in 60%.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 4W 4D 7L in their last 15 games (1.07 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 3W 5D 7L in their last 15 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Saint Etienne away?
Annecy's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.00 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Annecy or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Oct 2025, when Annecy won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Annecy
1
Draws
3
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Annecy have won 2, Saint Etienne have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Saint Etienne 4-0 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 29%, Saint Etienne 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Annecy) and 86% (Saint Etienne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Annecy have failed to score in 57% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Saint Etienne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 29% of Annecy's games and 86% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Annecy vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 29% of Annecy's matches and 86% of Saint Etienne's.
Do Annecy and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Annecy defy the odds to beat Saint Etienne 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Saint Etienne 2-1 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.12 xG and Saint Etienne 1.29 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.75 / defence 1.16 against Saint Etienne attack 1.05 / defence 1.33, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 32% | Draw 27% | Saint Etienne 40%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 27%, Saint Etienne 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.07 PPG, Saint Etienne 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.