Amiens 0-2 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne plays host to Amiens versus Quevilly in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 12 November 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Amiens have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Quevilly have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Amiens, 1.20 for Quevilly — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Amiens 0W, Quevilly 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Quevilly goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 46% versus Quevilly 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 40% | Quevilly 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.30 xG and Quevilly 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.082 / defence 0.822 | Quevilly attack 0.831 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.051. Data: 52 Amiens games / 52 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 51% | Draw 29% | Quevilly 21%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Quevilly 4.76. Amiens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 40% | Quevilly 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 51% | Draw 29% | Quevilly 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 37% | xG Amiens 1.30 / Quevilly 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.082 / def 0.822 | Quevilly attack 0.831 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Amiens (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Quevilly xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Quevilly kick off?
Amiens vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Quevilly?
Amiens 0 - 2 Quevilly.
Where is Amiens vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Quevilly part of?
Amiens vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 51% chance of winning, Quevilly a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Amiens and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Quevilly?
Record (2 meetings): Amiens 0W | Draws 1 | Quevilly 1W.
What form are Amiens and Quevilly in?
Amiens (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Quevilly (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Amiens's attack rating (1.08) and Quevilly's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (0.83x) against Amiens's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
51%
1.98
29%
3.47
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.02
0.72
Quevilly xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
6%
17.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.4 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Amiens and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Amiens and 0.72 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, Amiens have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 16W 19D 17L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Quevilly's form line: 14W 15D 23L from 52 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Amiens against 1.10 for Quevilly. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Amiens have posted 1.72 PPG from 25 outings (12W 7D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Amiens are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Quevilly have gone 6W 5D 14L from 25 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Amiens are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 0.94 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 16W 19D 17L in their last 52 games (1.29 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 14W 15D 23L in their last 52 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Quevilly away?
Amiens's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.72 PPG; Quevilly away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Amiens or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Quevilly in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Quevilly — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Amiens
2
Draws
2
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Quevilly?
From 6 meetings on record, Amiens have won 2, Quevilly have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2024, when Quevilly 3-3 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Amiens see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 36% (Amiens) and 32% (Quevilly) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Amiens) and 44% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 32% of games; Quevilly in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Amiens's recent matches and 32% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Amiens's recent games and 44% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Quevilly tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Quevilly cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Amiens 0-2 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.30 xG and Quevilly 0.72 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Amiens fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Quevilly outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.08 / defence 0.82 against Quevilly attack 0.83 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 51% | Draw 29% | Quevilly 21%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Quevilly win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 40%, Quevilly 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Quevilly's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.29 PPG, Quevilly 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Quevilly win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.