Rodez 0-1 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Grenoble at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Grenoble encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rodez and Grenoble meet at Stade Paul Lignon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 November 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rodez's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez at Stade Paul Lignon this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Grenoble (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Grenoble have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Grenoble are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Rodez 0W, Grenoble 0W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Rodez — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Grenoble — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Rodez 37% | Grenoble 31%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 28% | Grenoble 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 0.96 xG and Grenoble 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.864 / defence 1.299 | Grenoble attack 0.981 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.051. Data: 51 Rodez games / 51 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 27% | Draw 28% | Grenoble 45%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Grenoble 2.22. Grenoble hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grenoble are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grenoble if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 50% | Grenoble 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 27% | Draw 28% | Grenoble 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Rodez 0.96 / Grenoble 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.864 / def 1.299 | Grenoble attack 0.981 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Grenoble xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Grenoble kick off?
Rodez vs Grenoble kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Grenoble?
Rodez 0 - 1 Grenoble.
Where is Rodez vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Grenoble part of?
Rodez vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 27% chance of winning, Grenoble a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Rodez and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Grenoble?
Record (2 meetings): Rodez 0W | Draws 2 | Grenoble 0W.
What form are Rodez and Grenoble in?
Rodez (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Grenoble (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rodez's attack rating (0.86) and Grenoble's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Grenoble's attack (0.98x) against Rodez's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
27%
3.72
28%
3.61
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.30
1.34
Grenoble xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
7%
14.19
17%
5.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 13.4 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Rodez and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Rodez and 1.34 for Grenoble, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rodez come into this having played 51 games, going 12W 19D 20L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-L. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Grenoble sit at 1.29 PPG from 51 outings (18W 12D 21L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Rodez against 1.29 for Grenoble. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rodez's home form reads 5W 12D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Grenoble have taken 0.96 points per game from 25 outings (6W 6D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rodez are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 0.92 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Grenoble in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 12W 19D 20L in their last 51 games (1.08 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 18W 12D 21L in their last 51 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Grenoble away?
Rodez's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.08 PPG; Grenoble away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Rodez or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Grenoble in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Grenoble — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Rodez
3
Draws
4
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Grenoble?
From 10 meetings on record, Rodez have won 3, Grenoble have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Rodez 1-0 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Grenoble?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 44% (Rodez) and 20% (Grenoble) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 24% for Rodez and 32% for Grenoble.
On the defensive side: Rodez keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Grenoble in 40%; Rodez have failed to score in 36% of games; Grenoble in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Rodez's recent matches and 20% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Rodez's recent games and 32% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Grenoble tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Grenoble edge out Rodez 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble beat Rodez 0-1 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 0.96 xG and Grenoble 1.34 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rodez fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.86 / defence 1.30 against Grenoble attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 27% | Draw 28% | Grenoble 45%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 28%, Grenoble 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Grenoble's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.08 PPG, Grenoble 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grenoble win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Grenoble (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.