Saint Etienne vs Reims – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Saint Etienne and Reims meet at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Saint Etienne's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Saint Etienne at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Saint Etienne are significantly better at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard than their overall form suggests.
Reims have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 6D 0L. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reims away from home this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Saint Etienne lead 3W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 0–1 with Reims winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Saint Etienne — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Reims — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 45% versus Reims 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 60% | Reims 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.59 xG and Reims 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.532 / defence 0.792 | Reims attack 1.200 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Saint Etienne carry an above-average attack strength of 1.532 — their λ of 1.59 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Saint Etienne's defence rating of 0.792 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Saint Etienne games / 38 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 45% | Draw 28% | Reims 27%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Reims 3.70. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Saint Etienne 30% | Reims 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Friday 7 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 45% | Draw 28% | Reims 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Saint Etienne 1.59 / Reims 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.532 / def 0.792 | Reims attack 1.200 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Reims xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Reims kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Reims is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 7 May 2027 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Reims part of?
Saint Etienne vs Reims is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 45% chance of winning, Reims a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Saint Etienne and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Reims?
Record (6 meetings): Saint Etienne 3W | Draws 0 | Reims 3W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Reims in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Reims (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (1.53) and Reims's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Reims's attack (1.20x) against Saint Etienne's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.57
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.78
1.19
Reims xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
6%
18.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.19 for Reims, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 20W 7D 11L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Reims's form line: 16W 16D 6L from 38 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.68 for Reims. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 2.05 PPG from 19 outings (12W 3D 4L).
On the road, Reims have gone 6W 10D 3L from 19 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.66 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Reims in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Early Season
Reims
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Reims in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 20W 7D 11L in their last 38 games (1.76 PPG), while Reims have gone 16W 16D 6L in their last 38 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Reims away?
Saint Etienne's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 2.05 PPG; Reims away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Reims been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Reims in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Reims — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
3
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Reims?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 3, Reims have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Reims 1-0 Saint Etienne.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 42%, Reims 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Saint Etienne) and 42% (Reims). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Reims in 37%; Reims in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Reims?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 58% of Reims's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Saint Etienne's matches and 42% of Reims's.
Do Saint Etienne and Reims tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Reims in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.