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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Metz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stade de Roudourou plays host to Guingamp versus Metz in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Friday 7 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Guingamp haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade de Roudourou — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade de Roudourou than their overall form suggests.

Metz (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Metz haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Metz's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Guingamp 4W, Metz 3W, 3D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2025, ended 0–3 with Metz winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Where They Stand

Guingamp are 11th in Ligue 2 with 40 points from 34 games.

Trading

Guingamp half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Metz half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 50% versus Metz 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 56% | Metz 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.37 xG and Metz 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.870 / defence 0.953 | Metz attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 34 Guingamp games / 0 Metz games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Guingamp 43% | Draw 30% | Metz 26%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Metz 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 30% | Metz 50% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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