Nancy vs Rodez – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Rodez at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nancy vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nancy host Rodez at Stade Marcel Picot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 7 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nancy — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Nancy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nancy have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stade Marcel Picot — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Marcel Picot this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Rodez have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Rodez's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Nancy's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nancy register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rodez in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Nancy, 2 for Rodez and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2026, ended 1–3 with Rodez winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Nancy trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Rodez trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nancy 47% and Rodez 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nancy 47% | Rodez 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 1.33 xG and Rodez 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.970 / defence 0.946 | Rodez attack 1.235 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Rodez have an above-average attack strength of 1.235 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Nancy games / 38 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nancy 33% | Draw 28% | Rodez 39%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Rodez 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nancy 60% | Rodez 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Marcel Picot • Kick-off: Friday 7 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 33% | Draw 28% | Rodez 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Nancy 1.33 / Rodez 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.970 / def 0.946 | Rodez attack 1.235 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Rodez (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Rodez xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nancy vs Rodez kick off?
Nancy vs Rodez is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 7 May 2027 at Stade Marcel Picot.
Where is Nancy vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs Rodez part of?
Nancy vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 33% chance of winning, Rodez a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Nancy and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Nancy vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Rodez?
Record (4 meetings): Nancy 0W | Draws 2 | Rodez 2W.
What form are Nancy and Rodez in?
Nancy (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Rodez (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nancy's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Nancy's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
33%
3.05
28%
3.51
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Nancy xG
Total xG
2.80
1.46
Rodez xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
8%
13.19
10%
9.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Nancy and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Nancy and 1.46 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Nancy have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 11W 11D 16L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Nancy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rodez's form line: 18W 14D 6L from 38 games, 1.79 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Rodez are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nancy.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nancy have posted 1.11 PPG from 19 outings (6W 3D 10L).
On the road, Rodez have gone 8W 7D 4L from 19 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nancy are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.53 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 74%.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Early Season
Rodez
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nancy and Rodez in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while Rodez have gone 18W 14D 6L in their last 38 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nancy at home or Rodez away?
Rodez's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nancy at home: 1.11 PPG; Rodez away: 1.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Nancy's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nancy
2
Draws
2
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Rodez?
From 4 meetings on record, Nancy have won 0, Rodez have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Nancy 1-3 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Nancy and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nancy 37%, Rodez 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Nancy) and 58% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Nancy have failed to score in 42% of games; Rodez in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nancy play Rodez?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 37% of Nancy's games and 74% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nancy vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Nancy's recent games and 58% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nancy and Rodez tend to score early?
Nancy have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Rodez in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.