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Poisson model rates Annecy at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 32 as Annecy welcome PAU to Parc des Sports. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 May 2027 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Annecy haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Annecy have posted 5W 2D 3L at Parc des Sports — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, PAU stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. PAU haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

PAU's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Annecy are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Annecy, 3 for PAU and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 5–1 with Annecy winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Standings Snapshot

Annecy hold the table advantage, sitting 7th with 52 points — 2 positions and 7 points clear of PAU in 9th.

At home this season, Annecy have gone 7W 6D 4L. PAU have gone 7W 4D 6L on their travels.

In-Play Data

Annecy trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

PAU trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 53% versus PAU 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 56% | PAU 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.89 xG and PAU 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.069 / defence 0.926 | PAU attack 1.076 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Annecy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Annecy games / 34 PAU games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Annecy 51% | Draw 25% | PAU 24%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | PAU 4.17. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Annecy at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 70% | PAU 40% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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