Niort 1-3 Metz – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Metz at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Niort vs Metz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Metz travel to Stade René Gaillard to take on Niort. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 May 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Niort have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Niort's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stade René Gaillard this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Niort are significantly better at Stade René Gaillard than their overall form suggests.
Metz — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Metz's away record: 7W 3D 0L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Metz are 1.80 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Niort register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Metz in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Niort have won 0, Metz 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Niort in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Metz in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Niort 41% versus Metz 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Niort 45% | Metz 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Niort 1.07 xG and Metz 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Niort attack 0.996 / defence 1.453 | Metz attack 1.286 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.093. Metz have an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — the away xG of 2.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 71 Niort games / 33 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Niort 19% | Draw 22% | Metz 59%. Fair-value odds: Niort 5.26 | Draw 4.55 | Metz 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Metz (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Metz as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Niort 80% | Metz 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Niort vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade René Gaillard • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Niort 19% | Draw 22% | Metz 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Niort 1.07 / Metz 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Niort attack 0.996 / def 1.453 | Metz attack 1.286 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Metz (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Niort xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Metz xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Niort vs Metz kick off?
Niort vs Metz kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Stade René Gaillard.
What was the final score in Niort vs Metz?
Niort 1 - 3 Metz.
Where is Niort vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade René Gaillard.
What competition is Niort vs Metz part of?
Niort vs Metz is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Niort vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Niort a 19% chance of winning, Metz a 59% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Metz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Niort vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Niort and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Niort vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Metz?
Record (1 meetings): Niort 0W | Draws 1 | Metz 0W.
What form are Niort and Metz in?
Niort (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Metz (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Niort's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Metz's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Metz's attack versus Niort's defence, projects 2.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Metz Win
19%
5.29
22%
4.57
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Niort xG
Total xG
3.12
2.04
Metz xG
5.29
19%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
13%
7.70
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
2%
40.75
20%
4.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Niort vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Niort and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Niort and 2.04 for Metz, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Niort vs Metz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 71 outings, Niort have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 19W 16D 36L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Metz's form line: 22W 24D 25L from 71 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Niort on 1.03 PPG, Metz on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Niort have posted 1.23 PPG from 35 outings (12W 7D 16L).
On the road, Metz have gone 11W 10D 14L from 35 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Niort are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.23 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Niort
Current Season
Metz
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Niort and Metz in coming into this match?
Niort have gone 19W 16D 36L in their last 71 games (1.03 PPG), while Metz have gone 22W 24D 25L in their last 71 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Niort at home or Metz away?
Niort's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Niort at home: 1.23 PPG; Metz away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Niort or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Niort have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Metz in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Niort
1
Draws
1
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Niort and Metz?
From 2 meetings on record, Niort have won 0, Metz have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Niort and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Niort 1-3 Metz.
Who has won more matches between Niort and Metz?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Niort 49%, Metz 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Niort) and 49% (Metz).
On the defensive side: Niort have failed to score in 37% of games; Metz in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Niort home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Niort play Metz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Niort's recent matches and 46% of Metz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Niort vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Niort's recent games and 49% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Niort and Metz tend to score early?
Niort have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Metz in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Metz cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Niort.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz beat Niort 1-3 at Stade René Gaillard, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Niort 1.07 xG and Metz 2.04 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Metz outscored their 2.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Niort attack 1.00 / defence 1.45 against Metz attack 1.29 / defence 0.86, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Niort 19% | Draw 22% | Metz 59%, with Metz to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Niort 45%, Metz 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Niort's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Metz's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Niort 1.03 PPG, Metz 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metz win broke the near-deadlock. Niort (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Metz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.