Saint Etienne 3-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Geoffroy-Guichard plays host to Saint Etienne versus Clermont Foot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Friday 14 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Saint Etienne have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Saint Etienne's home record at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Saint Etienne are significantly better at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard than their overall form suggests.
Clermont Foot's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Clermont Foot's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Saint Etienne, 1.00 for Clermont Foot — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Saint Etienne, who have won 4 of the last 4 meetings against Clermont Foot — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Saint Etienne winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Saint Etienne and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 43% versus Clermont Foot 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 57% | Clermont Foot 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.56 xG and Clermont Foot 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.223 / defence 0.938 | Clermont Foot attack 1.016 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.216. Data: 35 Saint Etienne games / 35 Clermont Foot games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 45% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 27%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Clermont Foot 3.70. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Saint Etienne 20% | Clermont Foot 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Friday 14 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 45% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Saint Etienne 1.56 / Clermont Foot 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.223 / def 0.938 | Clermont Foot attack 1.016 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Clermont Foot xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 14 August 2026 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot?
Saint Etienne 3 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot part of?
Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 45% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot?
Record (4 meetings): Saint Etienne 4W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 0W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (1.22) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (1.02x) against Saint Etienne's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.53
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.72
1.16
Clermont Foot xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
6%
17.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.16 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Saint Etienne come into this having played 35 games, going 17W 7D 11L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Clermont Foot sit at 1.09 PPG from 35 outings (9W 11D 15L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Saint Etienne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Saint Etienne's home form reads 10W 3D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Clermont Foot have taken 0.94 points per game from 17 outings (4W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.09 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Early Season
Clermont Foot
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 17W 7D 11L in their last 35 games (1.66 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 9W 11D 15L in their last 35 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Clermont Foot away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.94 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Saint Etienne go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
5
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
0
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot?
From 5 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 5, Clermont Foot have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Saint Etienne 3-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Clermont Foot see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 41%, Clermont Foot 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Saint Etienne) and 53% (Clermont Foot). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Clermont Foot in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Clermont Foot?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 53% of Clermont Foot's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Saint Etienne's matches and 53% of Clermont Foot's.
Do Saint Etienne and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Saint Etienne cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Clermont Foot 3-1 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.56 xG and Clermont Foot 1.16 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Saint Etienne beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.22 / defence 0.94 against Clermont Foot attack 1.02 / defence 1.04, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 45% | Draw 28% | Clermont Foot 27%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 57%, Clermont Foot 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.