Reims 1-1 Nancy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reims at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Reims vs Nancy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Reims welcome Nancy to Stade Auguste-Delaune in Ligue 2 (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 25 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Reims have gone 2W 7D 1L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Reims's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Reims are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Nancy stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Nancy's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Reims carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Reims, 0 for Nancy and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2025, ended Reims 1–0 Nancy — a Reims win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Reims trading profile (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Nancy trading profile (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 48% versus Nancy 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 45% | Nancy 52%). Note also that Nancy surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Reims recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.33 xG and Nancy 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.971 / defence 0.943 | Nancy attack 0.816 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.172. Data: built from Reims's last 31 games and Nancy's last 31.
Result probabilities: Reims 45% | Draw 32% | Nancy 23%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.25 | Draw 3.11 | Nancy 4.29. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Reims's last 10 home games and Nancy's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Reims 40% (last 10 home games) | Nancy 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Nancy | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 32 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 45% | Draw 32% | Nancy 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Reims 1.33 / Nancy 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.971 / def 0.943 | Nancy attack 0.816 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Reims (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Reims xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Nancy xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reims vs Nancy FAQs
What time does Reims vs Nancy kick off?
Reims vs Nancy kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Nancy?
Reims 1 - 1 Nancy.
Where is Reims vs Nancy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Nancy part of?
Reims vs Nancy is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 32) (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Nancy?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 45% chance of winning, Nancy a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Nancy?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Reims and Nancy will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Reims vs Nancy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Reims's attack rating (0.97) and Nancy's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nancy's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Reims's last 31 games and Nancy's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
45%
2.25
32%
3.11
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Reims xG
Total xG
2.23
0.90
Nancy xG
2.25
45%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
6%
16.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.9 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reims vs Nancy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Nancy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Reims and Nancy expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Reims and 0.90 for Nancy, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Nancy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, Reims have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 13W 12D 6L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Nancy's form line: 7W 9D 15L from 31 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Reims are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nancy.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Reims have posted 1.87 PPG from their last 15 home games (8W 4D 3L).
On the road, Nancy have gone 3W 6D 6L from their last 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reims come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Reims are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Nancy are on 0.90 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Reims have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Current Season
Nancy
Current Season
Reims (Home) vs Nancy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reims
Current Season
Nancy
Current Season
❓ Reims vs Nancy Form FAQs
What form are Reims and Nancy in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 13W 12D 6L in their last 31 games (1.65 PPG), while Nancy have gone 7W 9D 15L in their last 31 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Nancy away?
Reims's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.87 PPG; Nancy away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Reims or Nancy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Nancy in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2025. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Reims
1
Draws
0
Nancy
Recent Meetings
❓ Reims vs Nancy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Nancy?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Reims have won 2, Nancy have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Reims and Nancy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: Nancy 1-2 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Nancy?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 40%, Nancy 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Reims) and 60% (Nancy).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Reims have failed to score in 27% of games; Nancy in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Nancy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reims vs Nancy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reims and Nancy matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Reims's recent matches and 60% of Nancy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Reims and Nancy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Reims's recent games and 60% of Nancy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Nancy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Reims's recent matches and 60% of Nancy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims and Nancy share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 32, as Reims and Nancy drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.33 xG and Nancy 0.90 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.97 / defence 0.94 against Nancy attack 0.82 / defence 1.12, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 45% | Draw 32% | Nancy 23%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 45%, Nancy 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Nancy's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Reims arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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