Quevilly 2-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Quevilly vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Robert Diochon plays host to Quevilly versus Saint Etienne in Ligue 2 (matchday 38). Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Current Form
Quevilly's record over their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Quevilly have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Saint Etienne (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Saint Etienne's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Saint Etienne arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Saint Etienne edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Quevilly 1–2 Saint Etienne — a Saint Etienne win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Quevilly half-time and goal-timing data (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 55% versus Saint Etienne 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 49% | Saint Etienne 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.09 xG and Saint Etienne 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 1.100 / defence 1.322 | Saint Etienne attack 1.148 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.168. Saint Etienne bring a tight defence (rating 0.792, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Quevilly's projected output down. Quevilly's defence rating of 1.322 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Saint Etienne's projected output up. Data: built from Quevilly's last 75 games and Saint Etienne's last 75.
Result probabilities: Quevilly 22% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 53%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 4.45 | Draw 4.03 | Saint Etienne 1.90. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Quevilly 70% (last 10 home games) | Saint Etienne 10% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 38 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 22% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Quevilly 1.09 / Saint Etienne 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 1.100 / def 1.322 | Saint Etienne attack 1.148 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Saint Etienne xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Quevilly vs Saint Etienne FAQs
What time does Quevilly vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Quevilly vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 17 May 2024 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Saint Etienne?
Quevilly 2 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Quevilly vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Saint Etienne part of?
Quevilly vs Saint Etienne is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 38) (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 22% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Quevilly and Saint Etienne will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Quevilly vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Quevilly's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (1.15x) against Quevilly's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from Quevilly's last 75 games and Saint Etienne's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
22%
4.45
25%
4.03
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.86
1.77
Saint Etienne xG
4.45
22%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
17%
5.88
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
4%
26.18
18%
5.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Quevilly vs Saint Etienne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.77 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 75 outings, Quevilly have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 18W 31D 26L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Saint Etienne's form line: 34W 19D 22L from 75 games, 1.61 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Saint Etienne are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Quevilly.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Quevilly have posted 1.16 PPG from their last 37 home games (9W 16D 12L).
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 14W 11D 12L from their last 37 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Quevilly are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.47 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Current Season
Saint Etienne
Current Season
Quevilly (Home) vs Saint Etienne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Quevilly
Current Season
Saint Etienne
Current Season
❓ Quevilly vs Saint Etienne Form FAQs
What form are Quevilly and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 18W 31D 26L in their last 75 games (1.13 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 34W 19D 22L in their last 75 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Saint Etienne away?
Saint Etienne's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.16 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 17 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Quevilly
1
Draws
2
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Quevilly vs Saint Etienne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Saint Etienne?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Quevilly have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Saint Etienne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2024: Quevilly 2-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 65%, Saint Etienne 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Quevilly) and 51% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne in 35%; Quevilly have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Quevilly vs Saint Etienne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Quevilly and Saint Etienne matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Quevilly's games and 54% of Saint Etienne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Quevilly and Saint Etienne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Quevilly's recent games and 51% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Saint Etienne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Quevilly's recent matches and 65% of Saint Etienne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Quevilly defy the odds to beat Saint Etienne 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Saint Etienne 2-1 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 38, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.09 xG and Saint Etienne 1.77 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Quevilly beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 1.10 / defence 1.32 against Saint Etienne attack 1.15 / defence 0.79, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 22% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 53%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Quevilly win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 49%, Saint Etienne 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Saint Etienne arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Quevilly winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Ligue 2 fixtures — matchday 38
All Ligue 2 fixtures →
More French football predictions →